Saturday July 21 2018

A Flash Flood Watch is in place through tonight for a very rare summer coastal storm. This will not have a name and should not turn tropical as the core Low will remain over land, but it might feel like it.  We will have building winds from the east feeding in moisture from the Atlantic wrapping around a deep Low Pressure that will cut right through Maryland.  Showers are already arriving this morning but the really heavy rain will arrive tonight along with stronger winds.

Storm Highlights:

Lunch Time most of us have rain

Mid 70s: High Temperatures

This evening and tonight: Heaviest rain time and strongest winds

3 to 6 inches: Rain totals in metro Baltimore 

30 to 40 mph: Wind speed across Delmarva, central Baltimore, and southern PA.

If you follow my theory of atmospheric memory, mark this date.  This pattern set up is likely to repeat itself with a more potent storm this coming fall and winter. Before you get too far ahead about snow, if this was winter, the core low might be too close and push the colder air farther inland. We can talk about that later.

See the radar simulation, rain timeline, and wet stormy week ahead graphics below.


Stats For July 21 in Baltimore

Average High:  87ºF

Record High: 104ºF in 1930

Average  Low: 67ºF

Record Low: 53ºF in 1966

Sunrise: 5:56 AM

Sunset 8:28 PM

*Daylight = 1:32 shorter than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 80ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House


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Morning Set Up

Coastal Low Forming With Energy Fed In From The West


Water Vapor Satellite Loop



Radar Simulation —> slider

HRRR Model – Worst will arrive tonight

[metaslider id=64067]


Rain Total Potential

This is the flooding potential through tonight.

Yes, that is 3 to 6 inches of rain today in central to southern Maryland!


NAM Model Animation


High Temperatures


Rain pattern next week:

We have a chance of rain every day. This may contain some severe storms.


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