2:20 PM March 30 2018

Today is both Good Friday and the start of Passover. If there is crossover and you have lingering Faith in the Flakes, you might get some April snow validation on Monday. This is not a delayed April fools joke and my FITF line is closed for the season. Even I have moved on with Shine On and the sights on spring. Heck, baseball season just began AND we were in the 70s this morning. But Mother Nature has another idea.

For the record, Baltimore averages a Trace of snow each April. The snowiest April was in 1924 with 9.4 inches.


Snow Potential – THIS IS NOT A JOKE

I didn’t want to mention this two days ago thinking the modeling was glitching and it would correct itself. Well, this system crossing the nation this weekend will have just enough cold air on the north end to produce snow.  At least we get a dry Easter out of this, but Monday morning may start with some snow. The tying is best for any potential stickage, but I am going to play this conservative at this point and lean on the side of wet roads. This is something to pay attention to just in case there is any adjustment worth mentioning. But I want to add that temperatures will struggles to get close to freezing in the morning, so this could be an elevation and grass type of accumulation event.

Here is a comparison of the GFS, Canadian, and NAM 12 Km (lower resolution than the short term product I often show). All three models show snow near and north of Baltimore Monday morning. I’ve added a new model I want to introduce you to. This is the ICON, initiates by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg Germany.  Some call it the German Model. Here it adds some contrast showing a warmer solution.


Storm Animation

GFS Model

This shows rain ending as snow. Little to no local road issues.

Canadian Model

This shows a start of rain after 2 AM, then changing to snow and ending between 8 and 10 AM. The snow line stays just north of Baltimore.


NAM 12 Km

The shows snow arriving by 5 AM an lasting until 10 AM.


ICON- German Model

This shows the snow primary hugging the PA line and staying north of most Baltimore metro areas.


How Much?

It is too early to speculate, especially with the quick timing and marginal or warm temperatures in the middle 30s.  Check back for more updates all weekend. It’s OK, my family will understand me taking a few breaks to work on this. 🙂


Temperature Outlook

When you see the high on this forecast or your app showing 49ºF for Monday, it is easy to thing something is wrong. But, in Spring it is possible to get snow int he morning, then have the sun return and warm up significantly in the afternoon. The thing to look for is the low temperature. With that staying above freezing, there is less of a chance for stickge.


Shine On

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Also See:

My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow

Maryland Winters

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow

Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks

Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops

First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)

My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends