March 22 2018
The totals are in for the Spring Snowstorm, the 4th Nor’easter in a row that finally hit the Mid Atlantic. This was the largest snow event since our all time record storms in January 2016 and the largest March snowfall since 2013. This was talked about for over a week and definitely not an easy forecast. I was very cautious of large snow amounts due to warm ground, late March sun angle on the Equinox, and temperatures near/above freezing. In this case, the heavy snowfall rates were stronger than the sun and winter weather won.
The regional official reporting stations were on the lower end and will not serve justice to this storm. Baltimore’s BWI had 4.7″ yet are on the map in the general 6 to 8 inch zone. How does this map and the local maps in the slider below compare to what you had?
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Airport Reports
BWI = 4.7″ Storm Total; Seasonal Total = 15.2″
Washington National = 4.1″ Storm Total; Seasonal Total = 7.8″
Dulles = 4.8″ Storm Total *Record for the date
Seasonal Total = 11.9″
Harrisburg International = 14.2″ Storm Total; *Record 11.9 for March 21; Seasonal Total = 33.7″
Compacting Snow = Lower Depth Than What Fell
I was in the snow zone and had 11 inches on the ground Tuesday night with Round 1. The places that were cleared (like my driveway) had an additional 9 inches of snow on Wednesday. We had a Toal of 20 inches measured in multiple locations. But the total ground depth compacted to a range of 14 to 16 inches. Yet according to the NWS map we are in the 12″+ zone. Snowfall is not always reflected well on these maps.
Below is a look at my final snowfall forecast and the local maps from the NWS Baltimore/Washington region. That is all that is available at post time. Please compare and then grade my forecast. While there was an adjustment on the higher end of my forecast, I hope the information I have shared was easy to understand and helped you plan.
What went wrong:
- Tuesday March 20: The initial sleet and snow in the morning was more intense than expected. That covered the ground and allowed more snow to add up in the colder zones. I expected 1 to 3 inches by evening mostly on the grass. Instead many were already in the 6 to 10 inch range. THAT WAS JUST ROUND 1.
- The arrival of the snow Wednesday was 2 to 3 hours later than expected, this also kept the snow around longer on the back end. But I did discuss it lasting all day and into the night.
What went right:
- The storm came together as expected.
- This was a two day event with the biggest hot on the second day.
- When I adjusted for the first day snow totals, the second phase verified most of my final forecast.
GRADE MY FORECAST
Please see the maps and stats below, then go back to the social media post where you saw this and Grade My Forecast as best you see it. I give myself a B-. I lost the most points with the day 1 snow in the snow zone. Then with snow beating the sun for stickage. Overall, this storm did work out and overachieve.
My Final Forecast
The map is the same, but totals increased just a little from my initial forecast. There are two numbers. The Additional Snowfall from Tuesday evening through Wednesday AND the FINAL TOTAL.
A: 12 to 20 inches total
B: 6 to 12 inches Additional Snow. TOTAL SNOW: 12 to 20 inches
- Yes, many parts of this region already had 4 to 8 inches as of Tuesday evening. That was the overachiever. The rest is what close to what I originally expect to start adding up from this point forward.
C: 6 to 12 inches Additional Snow. TOTAL SNOW 8 to 14 inches
D: 4 to 8 inches TOTAL *If I bust here, it will be because I am too low. I am banking on snow compacting and melting here.
E: Slushy 3 to 6 inches. Snow will be expanding during the day and into Wednesday night on the Eastern Shore. The daytime snow will battle temps in the mid 30s and sun angle. If there are heavier rates of snow, that could compensate the melting and go higher.
Snow Spotter Reports —> slider
County reports from NWS Baltimore Washington region. This is all that is available at post time. See the list below the slider
Full list of town reports below…
[metaslider id=60616]
Snow Spotter List
Note: Southern PA did get an average of 14 to 20 inches across Adams and York Counties but the reporting is not as organized from NWS State College PA
LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA ...District of Columbia... National Zoo 1 WSW 4.1 136 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter MARYLAND ...Allegany County... Ridgeley 1 NW 12.0 700 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Frostburg 11.0 918 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter Frostburg 2 ENE 10.5 602 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Frostburg 2 ESE 10.0 425 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Anne Arundel County... Londontowne 3 SW 8.8 700 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS Riva 2 WNW 7.5 430 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Riva 2 N 7.0 1238 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Herald Harbor 1 NW 6.3 335 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Annapolis 1 NW 6.3 240 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Odenton 1 WNW 6.2 205 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Odenton 1 N 6.1 1255 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Crownsville 3 SSW 6.0 630 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Crofton 2 NNE 6.0 230 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Green Haven 1 ESE 5.8 415 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Georgetown 1 ESE 5.5 445 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Pasadena 1 ENE 5.0 133 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter BWI Airport 4.7 800 PM 3/21 Airport Ridgeway 1 N 4.6 1245 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS Severn NE 4.5 1256 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Fort Meade 2 ESE 4.2 1212 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Baltimore County... Parkton S 11.3 500 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Bentley Springs 1 E 11.0 550 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Parkton 1 W 10.4 700 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Brooklandville 2 NNW 8.2 500 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Long Green 2 NW 7.5 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Glyndon 1 WSW 7.2 145 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Reisterstown 7.0 105 PM 3/21 Local Official Cockeysville 7.0 1256 PM 3/21 Broadcast Media Middle River 1 N 6.5 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Catonsville 1 SSE 4.5 700 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter White Marsh 1 ENE 4.5 900 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Perry Hall 1 NNE 4.5 300 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Lansdowne 1 ESE 4.1 200 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Perry Hall 2 E 4.0 300 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Rossville 1 NE 3.8 226 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Baltimore City... Lochearn 2 ENE 6.5 615 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Pikesville 2 SE 6.4 300 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS Pimlico SE 6.0 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Arbutus 2 NNE 5.5 804 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Calvert County... Huntingtown 2 WNW 8.0 545 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Prince Frederick 1 S 7.3 645 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Saint Leonard 2 WSW 7.0 305 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Dunkirk 2 SSW 6.5 620 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Huntingtown 2 SW 5.8 655 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Chesapeake Beach 4 S 5.5 500 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS Dares Beach 3 NNW 5.0 100 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Drum Point 2 N 4.5 645 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Dares Beach 1 WNW 4.0 102 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Carroll County... Lineboro 3 WSW 13.5 406 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Millers 4 NE 12.5 431 PM 3/21 Co-Op Observer Westminster 2 SE 12.3 450 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Wagners Mill 2 S 11.0 600 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Westminster SE 10.2 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Lineboro 2 E 10.0 1215 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Winfield 2 WSW 9.5 140 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Oakland NE 7.3 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Gamber 1 WNW 6.6 200 PM 3/21 NWS Employee ...Charles County... Hughesville 2 ENE 5.7 430 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Benedict 2 NW 5.5 109 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Bryantown 2 NE 5.5 110 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Bryantown 3 N 5.0 121 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Dentsville 1 SW 4.2 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Dentsville 1 E 3.5 135 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter La Plata 1 SW 3.5 123 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter La Plata 1 W 3.2 200 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter White Plains 3 NW 3.0 118 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Port Tobacco Village 3.0 140 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Frederick County... Thurmont 3 N 16.5 900 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Sabillasville 2 SSE 15.0 100 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Bloomfield 2 WSW 14.9 500 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Bloomfield 1 SSE 13.5 1200 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Myersville 2 SE 13.0 430 PM 3/21 Public Walkersville 1 E 12.0 355 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Braddock Heights 1 N 12.0 300 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter New Market 2 NW 9.0 1200 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Ballenger Creek 8.5 700 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Ballenger Creek 1 W 4.1 551 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Harford County... Norrisville 1 WSW 13.0 640 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS Bel Air 2 W 9.8 630 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Scarboro 2 E 9.0 750 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Bynum 1 SW 8.5 415 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Whiteford 8.0 340 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Bel Air 7.8 128 PM 3/21 County Emrg Mgmt Perryman 2 W 5.8 413 PM 3/21 Other Federal Abingdon 3 WNW 4.6 115 PM 3/21 Other Federal ...Howard County... Oella 1 NW 7.5 730 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Columbia 2 N 7.2 530 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Columbia 7.0 1245 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Savage 1 N 6.5 105 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Savage 1 ESE 5.9 110 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Scaggsville 1 ENE 5.5 330 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Columbia 2 NE 5.0 648 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Montgomery County... Clarksburg 2 SE 6.3 930 PM 3/21 Public Takoma Park 6.0 153 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Rockville 3 NNW 5.9 530 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Olney 1 SE 5.5 745 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS Damascus 3 SSW 5.3 422 PM 3/21 Co-Op Observer White Oak 1 W 5.3 413 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Norbeck 2 W 5.2 1249 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Norbeck 1 ESE 4.6 200 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Takoma Park 1 ESE 4.5 115 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Ednor 1 WNW 4.4 215 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Poolesville 4.0 340 PM 3/21 Co-Op Observer Four Corners 1 N 3.8 1245 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Montgomery Village 1 3.7 943 PM 3/21 1.19" LIQUID Spencerville WSW 3.5 808 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Four Corners 2 NW 3.3 345 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Montgomery Village 1 3.3 300 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS Montgomery Village 1 2.9 500 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Prince Georges County... Greenbelt 6.9 530 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS Cheltenham 1 NNE 6.8 230 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter University Park 1 E 6.5 227 PM 3/21 NWS Office Laurel 2 N 6.0 200 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Forest Heights 1 S 4.5 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...St. Marys County... Clements 2 WSW 5.8 445 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Mechanicsville 1 WNW 5.2 140 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Mechanicsville 2 N 5.0 1245 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Callaway 2 W 4.5 300 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Park Hall 1 NNE 3.3 645 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Great Mills 1 NNE 3.0 252 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Callaway 3 SSW 1.5 1255 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Washington County... Fairplay 3 SW 13.5 741 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Maugansville 1 NE 13.0 100 PM 3/21 Hagerstown Airport Long Meadow 1 SSE 12.5 220 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Long Meadow 1 WNW 12.5 600 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Boonsboro 3 NNE 12.1 900 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Pecktonville 3 NNW 11.0 1245 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Hagerstown 1 NNE 9.0 620 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter VIRGINIA ...Albemarle County... Carrsbrook 3 WNW 7.0 615 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Earlysville 3 NW 6.4 900 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter Free Union 5.0 800 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media Crozet 1 SSE 5.0 1222 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Hollymead 1 NNW 5.0 110 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Earlysville 5.0 800 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media Crozet 5.0 800 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media Boyd Tavern 1 S 4.1 1220 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Crozet 1 W 4.1 920 AM 3/21 CoCoRaHS ...Arlington County... Reagan National Apt 4.1 800 PM 3/21 Airport Barcroft 2 E 3.0 1249 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Westover 1 NNE 3.0 315 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Augusta County... Fishersville NE 10.8 200 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Moscow 3 S 10.5 920 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter Churchville 9.0 600 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media Hermitage 4 SW 8.8 800 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter Greenville 8.0 800 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media Churchville 4 NNW 8.0 953 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter Waynesboro 7.0 800 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media Waynesboro 2 WSW 6.5 815 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter Stuarts Draft 6.0 1218 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Weyers Cave 1 SSW 6.0 150 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Weyers Cave WSW 5.5 909 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...City of Alexandria... Alexandria 1 W 3.5 315 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...City of Charlottesville... Charlottesville 1 NN 5.0 1245 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Newcomb Hall 1 SW 4.7 1030 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter Newcomb Hall 2 SW 4.3 1140 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter Charlottesville 4.0 600 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media Charlottesville 1 SS 4.0 953 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...City of Fairfax... Fairfax 1 N 4.8 700 PM 3/21 NWS Employee ...City of Falls Church... Falls Church 1 W 3.6 345 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...City of Fredericksburg... Fredericksburg 1 E 3.0 230 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...City of Harrisonburg... Harrisonburg 2 W 7.0 1030 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media Harrisonburg 6.0 811 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media ...City of Manassas... Manassas 4.3 1207 PM 3/21 NWS Employee ...City of Staunton... Staunton 2 N 11.5 429 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Clarke County... Berryville 1 NNW 6.1 740 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Fairfax County... Herndon 1 NNE 6.0 105 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Herndon 2 SSW 5.3 100 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Chantilly 3 N 5.2 341 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Franconia ESE 5.2 1245 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Chantilly 1 NW 5.0 230 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Reston 2 NNE 5.0 537 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Chantilly 2 NNE 5.0 1230 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Reston 2 N 5.0 248 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Herndon 2 ENE 5.0 330 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Vienna 5.0 506 PM 3/21 Co-Op Observer Centreville W 4.5 1230 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Wolf Trap 1 ENE 4.0 855 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS Merrifield 1 SE 4.0 541 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Langley 1 SE 4.0 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter McLean 2 S 4.0 300 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS Franconia 1 SSW 3.6 100 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Dunn Loring 1 SSE 3.5 106 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Annandale 1 E 3.3 557 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Baileys Crossroads 1 3.2 120 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Rose Hill ENE 3.0 100 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Bren Mar Park 3.0 300 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Mount Vernon 1 ENE 2.9 345 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Fauquier County... Opal 2.5 110 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Greenwich 1 W 2.5 1200 PM 3/21 Other Federal ...Frederick County... Stephens City 2 E 4.8 930 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter Winchester 4 ENE 4.0 917 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Greene County... Stanardsville 6.0 534 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter Amicus 3 ESE 5.5 1010 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Highland County... Mustoe 1 WSW 12.9 1100 AM 3/21 Co-Op Observer ...Loudoun County... Lovettsville 7.0 1100 AM 3/21 County Emrg Mgmt Leesburg 1 ESE 6.0 155 PM 3/21 LEESBURG NWS OFFICE Ashburn 5.5 202 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Sterling Park 1 E 5.5 245 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Hillsboro 3 NW 5.5 1222 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Dulles International 5.3 800 PM 3/21 Airport Arcola 2 SSE 5.0 752 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Ashburn 1 NNE 5.0 536 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Leesburg 1 NE 5.0 1200 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Purcellville 4.7 230 PM 3/21 Co-Op Observer Sterling Park 2 ENE 4.0 100 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Madison County... Madison 3 ESE 6.2 230 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Nelson County... Wintergreen 4 E 4.0 800 AM 3/21 Nellysford Nellysford 4 ESE 3.8 1110 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter Rockfish 3.0 800 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media ...Orange County... Orange 1 E 4.0 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Barboursville 4.0 800 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media Thornhill 3.1 1000 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Page County... Honeyville 1 ESE 6.0 846 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter Ida 1 SW 6.0 830 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Prince William County... Independent Hill 3 N 5.3 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Independent Hill 2 E 5.0 315 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Bull Run 3 SW 4.6 230 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Dale City 1 W 4.0 245 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Lake Ridge 3 NNW 3.5 405 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Woolsey 2 WSW 2.1 626 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Rockingham County... Sparkling Springs 3 8.6 319 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Linville 4 ESE 8.0 1059 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter Dale Enterprise 1 ES 6.3 800 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter Massanutten 1 SE 6.2 1030 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter Grottoes 2 ENE 5.0 1026 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Shenandoah County... Woodstock 5.0 1256 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Spotsylvania County... Dunavant 1 S 4.5 1215 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Logan 3 W 4.3 343 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Spotsylvania Courtho 4.0 506 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Spotsylvania Court 1 4.0 506 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Stafford County... White Oak 3 SSE 4.0 530 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS Stafford 2 NNW 4.0 300 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS Ramoth 1 W 3.8 515 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Brooke 1 ESE 3.7 730 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Glendie 1 SSE 2.0 1200 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Warren County... Linden 2 N 6.0 1015 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter WEST VIRGINIA ...Berkeley County... Falling Waters 2 NW 15.0 800 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Martinsburg 2 E 14.9 700 PM 3/21 NWS Employee Johnsontown 1 S 13.0 530 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Vanville 1 SSW 9.5 700 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter Bunker Hill SE 4.0 1201 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Grant County... Kline Gap 2 ESE 5.5 525 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Hampshire County... Frenchburg 1 SE 7.0 200 PM 3/21 Facebook ...Hardy County... Wardensville 3 E 6.0 410 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Jefferson County... Shenandoah Junction 10.1 900 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS Ranson 2 NE 3.8 700 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS ...Mineral County... Burlington E 6.0 1201 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Morgan County... Smith Crossroads 1 W 15.9 822 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter ...Pendleton County... Deer Run 2 WSW 11.0 1238 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
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Also See:
My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow
La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter
NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow
Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks
Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops
First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)
My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes
Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat
NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record
Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals
Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends