March 22 2018
The totals are in for the Spring Snowstorm, the 4th Nor’easter in a row that finally hit the Mid Atlantic. This was the largest snow event since our all time record storms in January 2016 and the largest March snowfall since 2013. This was talked about for over a week and definitely not an easy forecast. I was very cautious of large snow amounts due to warm ground, late March sun angle on the Equinox, and temperatures near/above freezing. In this case, the heavy snowfall rates were stronger than the sun and winter weather won.
The regional official reporting stations were on the lower end and will not serve justice to this storm. Baltimore’s BWI had 4.7″ yet are on the map in the general 6 to 8 inch zone. How does this map and the local maps in the slider below compare to what you had?
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Airport Reports
BWI = 4.7″ Storm Total; Seasonal Total = 15.2″
Washington National = 4.1″ Storm Total; Seasonal Total = 7.8″
Dulles = 4.8″ Storm Total *Record for the date
Seasonal Total = 11.9″
Harrisburg International = 14.2″ Storm Total; *Record 11.9 for March 21; Seasonal Total = 33.7″
Compacting Snow = Lower Depth Than What Fell

I was in the snow zone and had 11 inches on the ground Tuesday night with Round 1. The places that were cleared (like my driveway) had an additional 9 inches of snow on Wednesday. We had a Toal of 20 inches measured in multiple locations. But the total ground depth compacted to a range of 14 to 16 inches. Yet according to the NWS map we are in the 12″+ zone. Snowfall is not always reflected well on these maps.
Below is a look at my final snowfall forecast and the local maps from the NWS Baltimore/Washington region. That is all that is available at post time. Please compare and then grade my forecast. While there was an adjustment on the higher end of my forecast, I hope the information I have shared was easy to understand and helped you plan.
What went wrong:
- Tuesday March 20: The initial sleet and snow in the morning was more intense than expected. That covered the ground and allowed more snow to add up in the colder zones. I expected 1 to 3 inches by evening mostly on the grass. Instead many were already in the 6 to 10 inch range. THAT WAS JUST ROUND 1.
- The arrival of the snow Wednesday was 2 to 3 hours later than expected, this also kept the snow around longer on the back end. But I did discuss it lasting all day and into the night.
What went right:
- The storm came together as expected.
- This was a two day event with the biggest hot on the second day.
- When I adjusted for the first day snow totals, the second phase verified most of my final forecast.
GRADE MY FORECAST
Please see the maps and stats below, then go back to the social media post where you saw this and Grade My Forecast as best you see it. I give myself a B-. I lost the most points with the day 1 snow in the snow zone. Then with snow beating the sun for stickage. Overall, this storm did work out and overachieve.
My Final Forecast
The map is the same, but totals increased just a little from my initial forecast. There are two numbers. The Additional Snowfall from Tuesday evening through Wednesday AND the FINAL TOTAL.
A: 12 to 20 inches total
B: 6 to 12 inches Additional Snow. TOTAL SNOW: 12 to 20 inches
- Yes, many parts of this region already had 4 to 8 inches as of Tuesday evening. That was the overachiever. The rest is what close to what I originally expect to start adding up from this point forward.
C: 6 to 12 inches Additional Snow. TOTAL SNOW 8 to 14 inches
D: 4 to 8 inches TOTAL *If I bust here, it will be because I am too low. I am banking on snow compacting and melting here.
E: Slushy 3 to 6 inches. Snow will be expanding during the day and into Wednesday night on the Eastern Shore. The daytime snow will battle temps in the mid 30s and sun angle. If there are heavier rates of snow, that could compensate the melting and go higher.
Snow Spotter Reports —> slider
County reports from NWS Baltimore Washington region. This is all that is available at post time. See the list below the slider
Full list of town reports below…
[metaslider id=60616]
Snow Spotter List
Note: Southern PA did get an average of 14 to 20 inches across Adams and York Counties but the reporting is not as organized from NWS State College PA
LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
...District of Columbia...
National Zoo 1 WSW 4.1 136 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
MARYLAND
...Allegany County...
Ridgeley 1 NW 12.0 700 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Frostburg 11.0 918 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Frostburg 2 ENE 10.5 602 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Frostburg 2 ESE 10.0 425 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Anne Arundel County...
Londontowne 3 SW 8.8 700 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS
Riva 2 WNW 7.5 430 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Riva 2 N 7.0 1238 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Herald Harbor 1 NW 6.3 335 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Annapolis 1 NW 6.3 240 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Odenton 1 WNW 6.2 205 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Odenton 1 N 6.1 1255 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Crownsville 3 SSW 6.0 630 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Crofton 2 NNE 6.0 230 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Green Haven 1 ESE 5.8 415 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Georgetown 1 ESE 5.5 445 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Pasadena 1 ENE 5.0 133 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
BWI Airport 4.7 800 PM 3/21 Airport
Ridgeway 1 N 4.6 1245 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS
Severn NE 4.5 1256 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Fort Meade 2 ESE 4.2 1212 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Baltimore County...
Parkton S 11.3 500 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Bentley Springs 1 E 11.0 550 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Parkton 1 W 10.4 700 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Brooklandville 2 NNW 8.2 500 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Long Green 2 NW 7.5 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Glyndon 1 WSW 7.2 145 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Reisterstown 7.0 105 PM 3/21 Local Official
Cockeysville 7.0 1256 PM 3/21 Broadcast Media
Middle River 1 N 6.5 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Catonsville 1 SSE 4.5 700 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
White Marsh 1 ENE 4.5 900 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Perry Hall 1 NNE 4.5 300 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Lansdowne 1 ESE 4.1 200 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Perry Hall 2 E 4.0 300 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Rossville 1 NE 3.8 226 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Baltimore City...
Lochearn 2 ENE 6.5 615 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Pikesville 2 SE 6.4 300 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS
Pimlico SE 6.0 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Arbutus 2 NNE 5.5 804 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Calvert County...
Huntingtown 2 WNW 8.0 545 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Prince Frederick 1 S 7.3 645 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Saint Leonard 2 WSW 7.0 305 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Dunkirk 2 SSW 6.5 620 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Huntingtown 2 SW 5.8 655 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Chesapeake Beach 4 S 5.5 500 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS
Dares Beach 3 NNW 5.0 100 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Drum Point 2 N 4.5 645 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Dares Beach 1 WNW 4.0 102 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Carroll County...
Lineboro 3 WSW 13.5 406 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Millers 4 NE 12.5 431 PM 3/21 Co-Op Observer
Westminster 2 SE 12.3 450 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Wagners Mill 2 S 11.0 600 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Westminster SE 10.2 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Lineboro 2 E 10.0 1215 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Winfield 2 WSW 9.5 140 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Oakland NE 7.3 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Gamber 1 WNW 6.6 200 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
...Charles County...
Hughesville 2 ENE 5.7 430 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Benedict 2 NW 5.5 109 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Bryantown 2 NE 5.5 110 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Bryantown 3 N 5.0 121 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Dentsville 1 SW 4.2 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Dentsville 1 E 3.5 135 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
La Plata 1 SW 3.5 123 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
La Plata 1 W 3.2 200 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
White Plains 3 NW 3.0 118 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Port Tobacco Village 3.0 140 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Frederick County...
Thurmont 3 N 16.5 900 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Sabillasville 2 SSE 15.0 100 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Bloomfield 2 WSW 14.9 500 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Bloomfield 1 SSE 13.5 1200 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Myersville 2 SE 13.0 430 PM 3/21 Public
Walkersville 1 E 12.0 355 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Braddock Heights 1 N 12.0 300 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
New Market 2 NW 9.0 1200 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Ballenger Creek 8.5 700 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Ballenger Creek 1 W 4.1 551 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Harford County...
Norrisville 1 WSW 13.0 640 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS
Bel Air 2 W 9.8 630 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Scarboro 2 E 9.0 750 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Bynum 1 SW 8.5 415 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Whiteford 8.0 340 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Bel Air 7.8 128 PM 3/21 County Emrg Mgmt
Perryman 2 W 5.8 413 PM 3/21 Other Federal
Abingdon 3 WNW 4.6 115 PM 3/21 Other Federal
...Howard County...
Oella 1 NW 7.5 730 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Columbia 2 N 7.2 530 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Columbia 7.0 1245 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Savage 1 N 6.5 105 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Savage 1 ESE 5.9 110 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Scaggsville 1 ENE 5.5 330 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Columbia 2 NE 5.0 648 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Montgomery County...
Clarksburg 2 SE 6.3 930 PM 3/21 Public
Takoma Park 6.0 153 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Rockville 3 NNW 5.9 530 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Olney 1 SE 5.5 745 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS
Damascus 3 SSW 5.3 422 PM 3/21 Co-Op Observer
White Oak 1 W 5.3 413 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Norbeck 2 W 5.2 1249 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Norbeck 1 ESE 4.6 200 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Takoma Park 1 ESE 4.5 115 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Ednor 1 WNW 4.4 215 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Poolesville 4.0 340 PM 3/21 Co-Op Observer
Four Corners 1 N 3.8 1245 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Montgomery Village 1 3.7 943 PM 3/21 1.19" LIQUID
Spencerville WSW 3.5 808 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Four Corners 2 NW 3.3 345 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Montgomery Village 1 3.3 300 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS
Montgomery Village 1 2.9 500 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Prince Georges County...
Greenbelt 6.9 530 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS
Cheltenham 1 NNE 6.8 230 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
University Park 1 E 6.5 227 PM 3/21 NWS Office
Laurel 2 N 6.0 200 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Forest Heights 1 S 4.5 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...St. Marys County...
Clements 2 WSW 5.8 445 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Mechanicsville 1 WNW 5.2 140 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Mechanicsville 2 N 5.0 1245 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Callaway 2 W 4.5 300 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Park Hall 1 NNE 3.3 645 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Great Mills 1 NNE 3.0 252 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Callaway 3 SSW 1.5 1255 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Washington County...
Fairplay 3 SW 13.5 741 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Maugansville 1 NE 13.0 100 PM 3/21 Hagerstown Airport
Long Meadow 1 SSE 12.5 220 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Long Meadow 1 WNW 12.5 600 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Boonsboro 3 NNE 12.1 900 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Pecktonville 3 NNW 11.0 1245 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Hagerstown 1 NNE 9.0 620 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
VIRGINIA
...Albemarle County...
Carrsbrook 3 WNW 7.0 615 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Earlysville 3 NW 6.4 900 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Free Union 5.0 800 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media
Crozet 1 SSE 5.0 1222 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Hollymead 1 NNW 5.0 110 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Earlysville 5.0 800 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media
Crozet 5.0 800 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media
Boyd Tavern 1 S 4.1 1220 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Crozet 1 W 4.1 920 AM 3/21 CoCoRaHS
...Arlington County...
Reagan National Apt 4.1 800 PM 3/21 Airport
Barcroft 2 E 3.0 1249 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Westover 1 NNE 3.0 315 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Augusta County...
Fishersville NE 10.8 200 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Moscow 3 S 10.5 920 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Churchville 9.0 600 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media
Hermitage 4 SW 8.8 800 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Greenville 8.0 800 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media
Churchville 4 NNW 8.0 953 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Waynesboro 7.0 800 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media
Waynesboro 2 WSW 6.5 815 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Stuarts Draft 6.0 1218 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Weyers Cave 1 SSW 6.0 150 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Weyers Cave WSW 5.5 909 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...City of Alexandria...
Alexandria 1 W 3.5 315 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...City of Charlottesville...
Charlottesville 1 NN 5.0 1245 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Newcomb Hall 1 SW 4.7 1030 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Newcomb Hall 2 SW 4.3 1140 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Charlottesville 4.0 600 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media
Charlottesville 1 SS 4.0 953 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...City of Fairfax...
Fairfax 1 N 4.8 700 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
...City of Falls Church...
Falls Church 1 W 3.6 345 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...City of Fredericksburg...
Fredericksburg 1 E 3.0 230 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...City of Harrisonburg...
Harrisonburg 2 W 7.0 1030 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media
Harrisonburg 6.0 811 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media
...City of Manassas...
Manassas 4.3 1207 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
...City of Staunton...
Staunton 2 N 11.5 429 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Clarke County...
Berryville 1 NNW 6.1 740 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Fairfax County...
Herndon 1 NNE 6.0 105 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Herndon 2 SSW 5.3 100 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Chantilly 3 N 5.2 341 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Franconia ESE 5.2 1245 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Chantilly 1 NW 5.0 230 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Reston 2 NNE 5.0 537 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Chantilly 2 NNE 5.0 1230 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Reston 2 N 5.0 248 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Herndon 2 ENE 5.0 330 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Vienna 5.0 506 PM 3/21 Co-Op Observer
Centreville W 4.5 1230 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Wolf Trap 1 ENE 4.0 855 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS
Merrifield 1 SE 4.0 541 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Langley 1 SE 4.0 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
McLean 2 S 4.0 300 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS
Franconia 1 SSW 3.6 100 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Dunn Loring 1 SSE 3.5 106 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Annandale 1 E 3.3 557 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Baileys Crossroads 1 3.2 120 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Rose Hill ENE 3.0 100 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Bren Mar Park 3.0 300 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Mount Vernon 1 ENE 2.9 345 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Fauquier County...
Opal 2.5 110 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Greenwich 1 W 2.5 1200 PM 3/21 Other Federal
...Frederick County...
Stephens City 2 E 4.8 930 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Winchester 4 ENE 4.0 917 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Greene County...
Stanardsville 6.0 534 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Amicus 3 ESE 5.5 1010 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Highland County...
Mustoe 1 WSW 12.9 1100 AM 3/21 Co-Op Observer
...Loudoun County...
Lovettsville 7.0 1100 AM 3/21 County Emrg Mgmt
Leesburg 1 ESE 6.0 155 PM 3/21 LEESBURG NWS OFFICE
Ashburn 5.5 202 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Sterling Park 1 E 5.5 245 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Hillsboro 3 NW 5.5 1222 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Dulles International 5.3 800 PM 3/21 Airport
Arcola 2 SSE 5.0 752 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Ashburn 1 NNE 5.0 536 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Leesburg 1 NE 5.0 1200 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Purcellville 4.7 230 PM 3/21 Co-Op Observer
Sterling Park 2 ENE 4.0 100 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Madison County...
Madison 3 ESE 6.2 230 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Nelson County...
Wintergreen 4 E 4.0 800 AM 3/21 Nellysford
Nellysford 4 ESE 3.8 1110 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Rockfish 3.0 800 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media
...Orange County...
Orange 1 E 4.0 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Barboursville 4.0 800 AM 3/21 Broadcast Media
Thornhill 3.1 1000 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Page County...
Honeyville 1 ESE 6.0 846 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Ida 1 SW 6.0 830 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Prince William County...
Independent Hill 3 N 5.3 400 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Independent Hill 2 E 5.0 315 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Bull Run 3 SW 4.6 230 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Dale City 1 W 4.0 245 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Lake Ridge 3 NNW 3.5 405 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Woolsey 2 WSW 2.1 626 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Rockingham County...
Sparkling Springs 3 8.6 319 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Linville 4 ESE 8.0 1059 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Dale Enterprise 1 ES 6.3 800 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Massanutten 1 SE 6.2 1030 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Grottoes 2 ENE 5.0 1026 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Shenandoah County...
Woodstock 5.0 1256 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Spotsylvania County...
Dunavant 1 S 4.5 1215 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Logan 3 W 4.3 343 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Spotsylvania Courtho 4.0 506 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Spotsylvania Court 1 4.0 506 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Stafford County...
White Oak 3 SSE 4.0 530 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS
Stafford 2 NNW 4.0 300 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS
Ramoth 1 W 3.8 515 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Brooke 1 ESE 3.7 730 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Glendie 1 SSE 2.0 1200 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Warren County...
Linden 2 N 6.0 1015 AM 3/21 Trained Spotter
WEST VIRGINIA
...Berkeley County...
Falling Waters 2 NW 15.0 800 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Martinsburg 2 E 14.9 700 PM 3/21 NWS Employee
Johnsontown 1 S 13.0 530 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Vanville 1 SSW 9.5 700 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
Bunker Hill SE 4.0 1201 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Grant County...
Kline Gap 2 ESE 5.5 525 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Hampshire County...
Frenchburg 1 SE 7.0 200 PM 3/21 Facebook
...Hardy County...
Wardensville 3 E 6.0 410 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Jefferson County...
Shenandoah Junction 10.1 900 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS
Ranson 2 NE 3.8 700 PM 3/21 CoCoRaHS
...Mineral County...
Burlington E 6.0 1201 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Morgan County...
Smith Crossroads 1 W 15.9 822 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
...Pendleton County...
Deer Run 2 WSW 11.0 1238 PM 3/21 Trained Spotter
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Also See:
My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow
La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter
NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow
Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks
Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops
First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)
My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes
Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat
NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record
Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals
Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends

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