9:55 PM Thursday March 8 2018

I didn’t really want to write about this storm yet, but I understand the excitement or concern. I need to warn you that the GFS Model is the only one of the major global models showing this storm as a hit for us Sunday night and Monday. It flip flops more than when my prom date was deciding on which dress to wear. I am sorry Allison, but it was true and I was very patient. Well, patience is a virtue that needs to be exercised again with this third Nor’easter. The GFS Model did show a shift (I remembered the F this time) closer in this afternoon’s run compared to this morning. This adjustment of 50 miles brings the heavy snow band across the Chesapeake Bay compared to the glancing blow from this morning.

I simply can NOT jump on to the notion of us getting hit at this time. The mere 50 mile push offshore in our last storm broke the forecast for our wester half of the area. It would be irresponsible to try to suggest with confidence that we get this while were are still on the edge, 4 days away.  There will be a storm that forms and it still deserves attention. But plans do not need to be changed at this time.

Here is the 2 PM Monday time frame to compare. See both animated storm tracks below. *The new/evening model runs will be arriving shorty after this post. Should there be any big shifts, I will acknowledge them in my morning update.

GFS Model

Canadian Model

The GFS Model updates every 6 hours. The Canadian Model I show below only has 12 hour update cycles and this morning’s run was much farther offshore. This is inline with the European Model. The other 6 Hr update model is the NAM 12 Km and it has the same 18Z (1 PM EDT) time update to compare. It is NOT even close to us.   I posted that below with the other animations.  So please consider this as you see the contrast and read other blogs. It is easy to find the model you want that shows the best solution for snow, but that is not necessarily the one that will play out.



Compare Storm Track Animations

GFS (recent afternoon run)


GFS (morning run)


Canadian (morning run)


NAM 12 Km (recent afternoon run)


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Also See:

My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow

Maryland Winters

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow

Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks

Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops

First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)

My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends