February 28 2018

After only the second sunny day of the month, we close out February with increasing clouds and mild temperatures. This month is on pace to finish as the 15th warmest February on record in Baltimore, and we will pay for it. March is going to roar in like a lion with a strong storm set to blow up off of the coast. It will usher in colder air, but as the storm departs. So it will begin with rain Thursday and end Friday with strong winds and perhaps some flurries. The issue will be the winds that can produce some damage.

The outlook below highlights the rain timeline and peak winds, but the second half of the weekend will improve. Then we stay in a cooler and busy pattern for the first half of February.

Stats For February 28

Average High: 48ºF

Record High: 71ºF in 1903

Average Low: 29ºF

*Former Record Low: 5ºF in 1934

Snow Record: 5.2″ in 1949

Seasonal Snow To Date (at BWI): 8.7″

Sunrise: 6:40 AM

Sunset 5:57 PM

*Daylight = 2:31 longer than yesterday

*Bay Water Temperature = 42ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

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This Morning

This Afternoon: High Temperatures

HRRR Model

Rain Storm Animation

Thursday Afternoon Through Saturday Afternoon

Wind Storm

The storm off of the coast will reach its peak on Friday evening. This map below Showa the location of the Low Pressure south of Long Island NY and dropping southeast. The pressure gradient will be increasing the wind all day. Inland areas can expect wind speeds between 30 and 40 mph, with gusts event higher. The best chance for sustained winds over 40 mph will be along the coat Friday evening and overnight.

Winds will remain strong on Saturday, but ease a little as the colder air settles in.

Temperature Outlook

I think think the modeling is having a hard time identifying how cold we will get with the pattern change. So the default is close to average.

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