Tuesday February 27 2018

The clouds finally moved away overnight and allowed colder air to spread through the area. This is the first time in s while we have frost to scrape, but it is still February. However, the sun will allow temperatures back into the 50s this afternoon and even warmer tomorrow. The next storm will spread rain showers between Thursday and Friday, followed by a shift in the jet stream. The maps below show the pattern change, but I stand by the belief that the models can not handle it well. So while I can show you a cool down and trough in the jet stream, plotting a specific storm track and location is not their forte. But I do believe we are in for a strong east coast storm in the first two weeks of March.

Stats For February 26

Average High: 48ºF

Record High: 76ºF in 1997

Average Low: 29ºF

*Former Record Low: 9ºF in 1934

Snow Record: 3.5″ in 1940

Seasonal Snow To Date (at BWI): 8.7″

Sunrise: 6:42 AM

Sunset 5:56 PM

*Daylight = 2:31 longer than yesterday

*Bay Water Temperature = 42ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

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How Warm This Afternoon?

Rain Returns Thursday and Friday

Jet Stream Flip

The trough (blue) in the jet stream on Friday represents a strong storm and adjustment of the flow from the north. While there is a pronounced ridge in the middle of the nation, there will be a stronger trough and possibly more impactful storm a week later.

The following Friday shows a stronger closed Low over the Mid Atlantic. This is reflected on the surface with a coastal snow storm but I refuse to show it at this time since I do not trust the modeling beyond 7 days. I will elaborate in my next report. But keep the notion of an active storm pattern with cold air for the first two weeks of March.

Temperature Outlook

I think think the modeling is having a hard time identifying how cold we will get with the pattern change. So the default is close to average.

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