Tuesday February 20 2018

The warmer air trying to move it over the colder Chesapeake Bay and ground has produced some very thick fog this morning. Some counties on the Eastern Shore have school delays, but the fog issues are widespread around Delmarva and on the north/east side of Baltimore. These locations where visibility is under 1/4 mile is where the travel will really slow down. This will improve by 9 or 10 AM and allow the sun to return and boost our warm air.

The surge of warm air on the way is going to push much of our region into the 70s over the next two days. This will challenge the so called heat wave of 1930. Records for Baltimore to watch are more likely to be in jeopardy tomorrow:

February 20, 1930 = 76ºF
February 21, 1930 = 74ºF

The end of our warm stretch will come with rain between Thursday and the end of the weekend. Up to 3 inches may fall in parts of our area. Then a return closer to average and even colder start to March. Winter is not done yet and I expect more chances for snow. It will just have to wait another week to 10 days.

Stats For February 19

Note: A few people have asked me about the term normal vs using average. Scientifically ‘average’ is a better term for the stats below, but The National Weather Service has used the ‘normal’ term in their climate data. I have switched it below to satisfy the fellow science geeks.

Average High: 46ºF

Record High: 76ºF in 1930

Average Low: 27ºF

*Former Record Low: +1ºF in 2015

Snow Record: 9.9″ in 1947

Seasonal Snow To Date (at BWI): 8.7″

Sunrise: 6:51 AM

Sunset 5:49 PM

*Daylight = 2:26 longer than yesterday

*Bay Water Temperature = 38ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

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This Morning

This Afternoon

Tomorrow Afternoon

Rainy End To The Week

Some showers may reach the northmen areas Wednesday evening. But the focus will be a day later. A series of Low Pressure centers will ride along a stalled front and keep us with a chance of rain between Thursday and Sunday.

Rainfall Totals

Outlook\ Temperatures

March Pattern:

The North Atlantic Oscillation has been forecast to drop into a record negative territory. Here is why. A Large blocking pattern is setting up across eastern Canada and Greenland. This will enhance the cold air and storm track for us in early March.

Often an early season warm up is met with strong return to cold

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