Wednesday February 7 2018

The arrival of the wintry mix is on schedule beginning in most areas during the 5 AM hour… which is as I write this. Many school districts have delayed their start time, and I expect they will reevaluate the situation after sunrise. The Winter Storm Warning remains for a heavy ice storm in the mountains, and the Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to Calvert and Dorchester Counties due to the temperatures down around freezing.

5 AM Temperatues

Below is a look at the ice timeline and key time frames for temperatures. There are a few things I want to point out with the storm:

Temperatures tend to drop a degree or two as the precipitation begins.
The ground is a little colder than the air temperature. So as we start to thaw, the thermometers will read above 32ºF before the ground feels it.
There will be a few hours of snow/sleet/freezing rain this morning with a break possible. That is the upper level warm front at cloud level. Then the main band of precipitation will move in later this morning
Snow accumulation will be minimal but colder areas that got it Sunday could get another 1 to 2 inches this morning. The ice accumulation is the biggest threat!
Schools likely to reevaluate delay vs. closing during the morning
The thaw time is very difficult and not region wide. It will be a slow process and in your town you may turn the corner and go from wet back to ice covered roads.
The rain will end this evening and the freezing air will come back a few hours later. That will be the race between drying and freezing for more possible ice tomorrow morning.
Salt will wash away, some a fresh drop would be needed.

See Live Interactive Radar Here

Stats For February 7

Normal High: 43ºF

Record High: 72ºF in 2017

Normal Low: 25ºF

*Former Record Low: +6ºF in 1895

Snow Record: 10.1″ in 1967

Seasonal Snow To Date (at BWI): 6.5″

Sunrise: 7:07 AM

Sunset 5:34 PM

*Daylight = 2:14 longer than yesterday

*Bay Water Temperature = 34ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

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Also see: What is Winter Precipitation: Snow, Sleet, and Freezing Rain

NAM 3 Km Model Animation

Radar Simulation Close View

Compare Two Model Timelines

—> NAM 3 KM Model Slider

Notice the break this morning as the first wave of ice moves north and then the rain arrives from the west. The push of warmer air should consider the frozen ground and some leftover ice for an extra hour to two.

[metaslider id=57780]

Ice Accumulation

End Of The Rain

Temperatures: ReFreeze

The return of the freezing air will be at least 2 hours after the rain ends… The race between drying and icing on roads…

Morning Chill

Most areas will be well below freezing Thursday morning

—> HRRR Model Slider

[metaslider id=57762]

End Of The Rain

This shows the end of the rain a few hours early, and the return of freezing air a few hours later.

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