Saturday January 27 2018

Today is by far the pick of the weekend. With sunshine ahead of increasing clouds, the temperatures will rise into the upper 50s and near 60ºF. Polar Bear Plungers will have cooler temps right along the bay thanks to water temperature of 34ºF. Rain is on the way for Sunday and as the front appears to stall, it will linger near and south of Baltimore all day. But near and north of the PA line the rain may end in the morning.

Colder air is on the way and the first system to act on it might be a burst of snow Monday night into Tuesday morning. The second event will be a layer storm to arrive on Friday. There is more agreement among models that we will get snow after a start of rain on Groundhog Day. It is too early to say how much, or event eh specifics on timing. But I would hedge my bet now on the afternoon and evening impact on the weekend. See more below.

Stats For January 27

Normal High:  42ºF

Record High:  72ºF in 1974*

Normal Low: 25ºF

*Former Record Low: +3ºF in 1987

Snow Record: 4.3″ in 1925

Seasonal Snow To Date (at BWI): 6.5″

Sunrise: 7:17 AM

Sunset 5:21 PM

*Daylight = 1:55 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 34ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House


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Clouds will begin to thicken up in the afternoon and towards evening. 


Rain Timeline

Saturday Night

The first showers will arrive tonight.

Sunday Morning

The system is showing signs of moving through Baltimore and stalling nearby. The rain may end in the morning north of Baltimore but linger all day near the city/I-95 and the rest of Maryland/Delmarva.

Sunday Night

Rain Totals

This plot helps shows where the rain will likely last most of Sunday… 


Snow Next Week?

Monday Night-Tuesday Morning


Groundhog Day Storm

GFS Model

This shows light rain to snow Friday morning… But the amounts will be light… 


Canadian GEM Model

This shows a larger event with heavier snow amounts…. Still too early to pin down how much. But the timing supports rain turning to snow mid day and afternoon on Friday. 


Temperature Trend

Please note:

  • This weekend will be mild
  • Monday and Friday will both has falling temperatures during the day
  • February: When the model shows near normal conditions, it does not have a clear signal how cold the air mass wil be. I see a colder trend into Mid February .



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Also See:

My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow

Maryland Winters

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow

Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks

Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops

First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)

My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends