January 3 2018

The storm is just forming this morning and already producing freezing rain down to Jacksonville, FL. Today we will watch it develop and track out way with light snow reaching southern Virginia and Maryland by midnight. Then comes the tough part to determine how far west the snow will fall. There is high confidence that moderate snow will fall in southern Maryland and Delmarva through Thursday. Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories have been issues, but there will be more snow falling farther north not under any alert at this tine. There is lower confidence on the back end of the snow that may bring some road issues to metro Baltimore. Please see the notes and multiple snow maps below.

Current Warnings and Advisories


Stats For January 3

Normal High:  42ºF

Record High:  68ºF in 2000

Normal Low: 25ºF

Record Low: 0ºF in 1979

Snow Record: 1.6″ in 1988

Sunrise: 7:26 AM

Sunset 4:56 PM

*Daylight = 47 seconds longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 36ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

Seasonal Snow To Date (at BWI): 4.3″

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This Morning


This Afternoon


Storm Info

Just Developing This Morning

Snow and ice in northern Florida and Georgia

Light snow should move into southern Maryland between 9 PM and Midnight. This will slowly spread north overnight but run into very dry air. So the back edge of the snow will have hard work to break through. Plan on metro snow by daybreak, but we have a wide spread of 3 to 7 AM for it to begin.  This will make calls for school and work tough. I will have a better timeline to show in my next post.

—-> slider: Compare 7 AM The NAM 3Km to GFS and Canadian Models

[metaslider id=56560]

Snow Forecasts

This is my first call snowfall map… I only made some minor adjustments to the coding for each zone. I will have my new call later this morning.

A: Back edge of light snow.

  • Dusting to 2 inches (on the high end) possible. Aiming for this to start by daybreak and end early afternoon Thursday.

B: Dusting to 1 to 4 inches

  • This is the back edge of where I feel confident the snow will fall with impact. The Bay Bridge may be near the dividing line with more snow south and east. This should begin by 4 AM

C: 4 Inches Or More

  • There will be a sharp drop off of snow to the west and big increase to the east. This should begin by midnight.

D: 6 to 12 inches

  • There will be places near Salisbury and central Delmarva the get close to a foot of snow. This will being after 8 PM

Computer Model Forecasts


National Weather Service Forecast Maps

Locally: The Sterling VA Office for Baltimore/Washington has upped the Annapolis total to 1 inch and brought Lexington Park into the 3/4 inch range.


The snow amounts shown for southeast VA to Maryland’s Southern Eastern Shore are form NWS Wakefield VA. This reflects the higher edge but still is conservative compared to some modeling….


The northern Delmarva forecast comes from NWS Philadelphia out of Mount Holly NJ. This brings Easton , Rock Hall, and Chestertown now in the 2 to 4 inch range.


Temperature Outlook

We are promised colder air and stronger winds into the weekend. The ‘thaw’ from this deep freeze should be by Monday next week




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Also See:

My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow

Maryland Winters

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow

Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks

Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops

First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)

My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends