December 31 2017

We are closing out 2017 with fresh snow on the ground and bitterly cold air continuing to expand our way. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect tonight through Monday morning January 1 2018. This is for metro areas to have wind chill values between -5ºF and -10ºF, and inland areas colder than -10ºF. Plans to be outside may need to be reconsidered.

After the coldest New Year’s eve in half a century, there will be another surge of even colder air later in the week. More on that below.

Baltimore official recorded 0.5″ of snow for a total of 4.3″ for the month and season. This is more than an average December and more than all of last winter. I will have the complete snow report and grade my forecast later today.

Stats For December 31

Normal High:  42ºF

Record High:  72ºF in 1992

Normal Low: 25ºF

Record Low: -1ºF in 1880

Snow Record: 3.2″ in 1970

Sunrise: 7:26 AM

Sunset 4:54 PM

*Daylight = 37 seconds longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 39ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

Snow To Date (at BWI): 4.3″

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Temperatures and Wind Chill

This Morning- It will be colder tomorrow…


High Temperatures: HRRR Model


Midnight 2018

Yes, that is 11ºF in Baltimore and near or below zero to the north


Wind Chill At Midnight

This all depends on the wind at that time… It wil be getting colder all night long. Her we see an estimate of +6ºF in Baltimore, but -10ºF in Westminster and colder inland.

Temperature Outlook

Baltimore did hit 33ºF on Saturday, so the streak of below zero hours was broken, but we won’t get back there until next week… Monday January 8 at the earliest. 


Jet Stream:

This is the reinforcing shot of arctic air on Thursday and Friday


Coastal Storm- Pushed Too Far East

This is the pattern I suspected in my My Winter Outlook 2017-2018: Models will see a storm forming off of the coast a week away but it will not verify and end up farther east. This is the 4th time we have seen it this month. Here is the latest look at the Thursday January 4th setup. There may be some retrograde back to clip Ocean City with some snow, but I don’t see it hitting metro areas.

*But much like the even the had yesterday, I see more of these clipper style events.. and the ones that we do not see well ahead of that will impact us. Since there are no major events on modeling for the next 10 days at this moment, I actually think we will see another push of snow in the arctic air next weekend.




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Also See:

My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow

Maryland Winters

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow

Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks

Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops

First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)

My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends