December 26

Now that the cold air is in place, the focus is how cold. Christmas Day brought Baltimore a wind gust of 47 mph. Today the wind wil not be as strong, but colder air will calculate to it being more of an impact. Temperatures this morning are in the 20s and wind chills will stay in the 20s this afternoon. The cold air will continue to be reinforced from the source. Cross Polar flow will keep the nest 10 days mostly below freezing. It will remain very cold into the New Year. Before you say it, I already know: “If we don’t get snow, it is a waste of cold air”.

Lake Effect Snow:

Erie, PA got 34 inches of snow in a single day! For what it’s worth, parts of NY State will get up to 40 more inches of Lake Effect Snow this week. Lucky them…

Check out the sub-zero temps across the western Great Lakes and Northern Plains this morning.

Well, this brings us back to the multiple outlooks that pointed to a storm at the end of this week. I need to go back to my winter outlook to find verification already. Storms have had a tendency to show up on models, only to end up going farther east. Yes, we had a few events this month that surprised us, but the reality is that computer modeling is NOT that good beyond 5 days. However, there is still hope for snow this week. See more below.

Stats For December 26

Normal High: 43ºF

Record High: 73ºF in 1964

Normal Low: 26ºF

Record Low: 2ºF in 1983

Snow Record: 4.4″ in 1933

Sunrise: 7:25 AM

Sunset 4:50 PM

*Daylight = 18 seconds longer than yesterday

*Bay Water Temperature = 42ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

Snow To Date (at BWI): 3.8″

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Today’s Wind Chills

Morning: 8 AM

Afternoon: 4 PM

Skipping Ahead To Snow

I am showing Saturday’s outlook because this clipper is what I think has a chance. Here is the Canadian GEM Model. You may not see this on your phone apps or local TV forecast if they us the GFS (American) model. I will show the below. This does have support from the European Model for light snow…

This might be a little aggressive and end up a little farther north. The track will determine how far south into Maryland the snow will reach. I do see at least light snow into the mountains and northern suburbs of Baltimore into southern Pennsylvania.

GFS Model Swings and Misses Again

Every post I showed of this model and the end of week storm, I mentioned that I did not trust it. I knew it is the holiday week and there was anticipation for a storm. But this draws back to my Winter Outlook and the error in computer modeling. The tendency will be for storms to show up a week or more away, then shift east or not develop at all. This is due to the long range mis-timing of elements coming together.

Friday through Tuesday…

“It will be the storms we don’t see that will impact us the most.”

The week we did get snow, it was the little events that were adjusted in the last 24 to 48 hours that made them appear like over achievers. That is my focus for my outlooks, which is why I showed the Canadian Model above. We still have something to watch this week.

FITF

It is still very early in winter and the source of cold air is in our favor. So far, wet re ahead of schedule on snowfall. The 3.8 inches of snow at BWI this month is greater than the average of 3 inches. There is plenty of time ahead to get the storm track to produce something more beneficial. Keep your Faith in the Flakes going strong!

Cold Continues

Cross Polar Flow keeps reinforcing the cold air. Here is the North American view. This shows the push across the arctic and through Canadian. The blanket of fresh snow will allow this to send even colder air our way this weekend.

Temperature Outlook

One this that is certainty- It will remain cold for the next 10 days. This is great news for making snow at ski resorts.

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