Monday December 18

We had some rain overnight that may have made the ground we by you, but the air temperatures have stayed above freezing since. The pattern will remain mild all week even as the calendar passes the Winter Solstice this Thursday.  There is a chance to reach 60ºF tomorrow, then another mild push this weekend as rain makes a return. The big question will be next week around Christmas Day when the next arctic surge will be knocking on our doorstep. There are some maps below but please consider that it is still a full week away and there is no agreement on the computer models with the timing.

Stats For December 18

Normal High:  44ºF

Record High:  72ºF in 2006

Normal Low: 27ºF

Record Low: 7ºF in 1919

Snow Record: 4.0″ in 1916

Sunrise: 7:21 AM

Sunset 4:46 PM

*Bay Water Temperature = 44ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

Snow To Date (at BWI): 3.8″

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High Temperatures

This Week

There will be one system in the south that is expected to miss us on Wednesday. I say ‘expected’ as prior systems had come back farther north and I still do not trust these models I show here. That seems like a contradiction, but I show these forecast plots as guidance and look for trends.



This weekend

A larger system and the storm track will be warmer to our west. This will bring in mild temperatures and rain. Snow will return to western Maryland and ski resorts out west.

Forecast Animation

Christmas Outlook

Arctic air is rebuilding and will be trying to return around Christmas. There is a discrepancy on the timing and here the GFS Model shows it on our doorstep Christmas Day.


This will be associated with another storm and the transition from rain to snow. It is TOO EARLY to pin down. Remember the past 3 snow events ramped up in the final day or two… so this is still open for adjustment.



I need to mention that the European Model- not shown here… was colder and is now extending the warm air to hang on another two days. I will contrast the two here in my next report.


Temperature Outlook

The big cool down will be really big to close out the month. Whenever it arrives, it will be stronger and last longer that the previous arctic push.





Snowstix- We Need You To Measure Snow Too

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Also See:

My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow

Maryland Winters

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow

Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks

Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops

First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)

My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends