Thursday December 14 2017 at 10:10 PM

Looking at the maps tonight, I have to draw back on one basic rule of meteorology I learned back in college: The trend if your friend. We are in a pattern where these little systems not only appear to shift to impact central Maryland, but they over achieve. We have anther little system but it looks quite familiar. The other brach of the jet stream is active and making a move to the north. There will be a weak Low Pressure forming along the coast plus a jet streak aloft that will spread light snow in our region by lunchtime Friday.

The difference is that temperatures have been cold. The ground has chilled quite a bit this week and the air will likely stay near or below freezing all day Friday. So when I would normally point to the solar influence, we have the lower sun angle (week) of the year. Basically, light snow could cause a big headache.

Here is the upper level system this evening. I’ve highlighted the region to focus on. Watch the animated water vapor loop below and see the shift to the north…


24 Hour Water Vapor Loop



Snowy Friday:

This looks like a late morning development of flurries and then light snow through the afternoon. 

High Temperatures will remain cold enough to support stickage

—> slider: Radar Simulation

  • Metro Washington to Baltimore could get a coating of snow and should see it end by 4 PM
  • The northern edge might be near York PA and Hagerstown/Frederick.
  • Similar to last Saturday, this may enhance during the mid to late afternoon.
  • Lasting into the evening on Delmarva. Their problems will be after 3 PM through late evening

[metaslider id=55778]

Snow Total Potential:

  • Metro Washington and Baltimore = A coating
  • Less up near the PA line and west of Frederick
  • Annapolis = a litte more
  • Souther Maryland = 1 to 2 inches
  • Eastern Shore/Delmarva = 1 to 3 inches



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Also See:

My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow

Maryland Winters

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow

Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks

Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops

First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)

My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends