Wednesday December 6

The arctic front has moved through and strong winds are ushering in the colder air. Wind gusts this morning have been measured over 30 mph. While the winds will ease a little, strong gusts expected all day will make for white knuckles over bridges and colder wind chills. Temperatures this afternoon will be close to 20 degrees colder than yesterday (high of 61ºF at BWI). There will be snow in Maryland this week, but nothing major. Flurries expected in the mountains and a mix of snow and sleet with the storm shifting off of the east coast Friday.

The outlook remains colder than average for at least the next two weeks. There will be energy in the pattern and I suspect we have a chance at a system next Tuesday and Wednesday to bring some wintry weather in place. Here’s the latest:

Stats For December 5

Normal High: 48ºF

Record High: 77ºF in 1998

Normal Low: 31ºF

Record Low: 13ºF in 2002

Snow Record: 6.8″ in 2004

Sunrise: 7:12 AM

Sunset 4:44 PM

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Afternoon Temperatures/Wind Chills

Reminder: Yesterday was 61ºF at BWI

Cold Air Advection

This is the upper level 850mb view showing the unobstructed arrival of cold air at around 5,000 Ft.

Temperature Animation

Coastal Friday:

The front stalls or crawls off of the east coast. This will be a test of my Atmospheric Memory Theory and Model Bias. The trend has shifted this east and the time to watch is Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. There will be cold enough air to develop sleet and snow mix… But not all will stick. The ground is still warm, but some may lay and stay on grassy areas/landscaping. I do not see a road issue on Delmarva or the beaches at this time. West of the Bay will be a non issue.

Weekend Flurries

There will be flurries and snow showers in the mountains. I am still watching this upper level disturbance Sunday to bring in a chance for flurries in the morning until early afternoon. The Vortex Max ‘X’ is swinging through to our south a good location, but the trough axis is not the most favorable. It looks like a back-slash but we would want the orientation like a forward slash. As long as it is positioned like this, system will be more progressive and shift farther east.

Next Week System:

The GFS Model shows a system passing into Pennsylvania, which would bring a snow/rain mix. But that location and track breaks up the moisture or central Maryland. If the model bias holds here was well, then there will be a shift east and make this worth watching for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Watching the Upper Level Pattern For Signal Of Shift

I showed this jet stream view last night showing that trough axis shifted to that ‘forward slash’ orientation. That pivot is critical for us to get systems more likely to impact us with wintry weather.

Temperature Outlook

Compare the GEFS and European Models

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