Monday February 22 10 PM Update- I went to a lot of schools today across Maryland between Baltimore, Harford, and Frederick Counties. I was delivering Faith in the Flakes shirts, so the curiosity about the next winter event was expected. Every single one has faculty asking the same question about the chance of snow tomorrow. I thought I put that to rest, but it appears the notion was on many forecasts earlier today. But also one other thing: Every Tuesday for the past month has been impacted by winter weather. So many scheduled meetings or routine classes disrupted. Now, the only good news about just rain on the way, is that we should have a normal Tuesday. In fact, this might be the first full 5 day school week in over a month. How will we every deal?

Here is a quick look at the rain in the way. I’m glad it was clear enough to the watch the Full (Snow) Moon rise, but clouds are rolling in and the temperatures should remain above freezing. As for the rain… that will be moving in around  daybreak, then stay with us most of the day.


HRRR Model: Rain arrival

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Temperatures should remain above freezing in the morning. So even if there was an earlier arrival, it looks like the slim chance of wintery mix will be in central PA at the onset.

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WRF/NAM Model: Tuesday Timeline

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The real rain arrives Wednesday. It will be heaviest in the afternoon and evening.

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The cold air returns (with brief snow) Thursday Evening

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*Reminder that we could be in for well over 1 inch of rain with local flooding. I will have a more detailed outlook in the morning update.


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