Tuesday February 23 – Rain is moving in this morning and will be with us most of the day. This is phase one of a two part system that will bring us a very active few days of weather. The storm track will be to our west, bringing in warm and unstable air Wednesday with the risk of severe storms tracking into Maryland. Today however, will be just a chilly rain with heavier bands in southern Maryland as shown in the radar simulation below. The action will build along the Gulf Coast with a tornado outbreak today that moves into the Mid Atlantic in a diminished form tomorrow. The same storm will bring heavy snow to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. There is still winter to be had, just not here until colder air returns behind the storm at the end of the week.
Radar Simulation Today:
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Severe Storm Outlook:
Notice the focus today, then the shift to the northeast on Wednesday. My concern for the risk expanding farther north is based on the trend of systems verifying north AND warm temperatures reaching deep into the 60s during the afternoon.
Timeline: Track Wednesday’s Storm
The heaviest rain will be in the afternoon and evening. Even if there are no severe storms, there is a risk for flooding with well over 1 inch of rain.
[metaslider id=34754]Temperature Outlook:
After a chilly rain today, the surge of strong wind and temperatures into the 60s Wednesday will fuel storms. Only a brief cool down behind the storm and the storm track next week appears to remain north and west of our region keeping us above average.
Storm Track Next Week:
As I suggested, the trend for the next system continues to shift north. This snapshot compared to the image I showed yesterday is for that purpose. No specifics needed other than justifying why looking at long range systems need caution and I don’t jump on the first hint of snow. It is rare that a computer model showing a storm more than a week away is confirmed. But tracking the trend can help focus on the ones that will be an impact.
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