Blizzard 2016: Tracking Virga On Radar And Snow Arriving

January 22- At 1 PM, like many of you I have been watching the radar. A winter event will typically give false reading of the leading edge of snow since the air is pretty dry. Thanks to the colder night, and clouds moving in, colder air is locked in and why snow totals are likely to go up. But we have the break the dry seal first. Until then we see virga, which appears on radar, but the flakes sublimate before reaching the ground. Sacrificial flakes, but laying the ground work for the storm.  So we have to rely on higher revolution radar and ground reports for the snow. That is where you will be needed to help on social media. Don’t doubt for a second: We are under a State of Emergency and Blizzard Warning.

Here is the latest HRRR Model showing the snow that should develop behind the virga this afternoon. Once it starts, it will pick up in a hurry. So a cautious 1 to 3 hour window for first flakes has been given.  I will follow this report with a more detailed look at the storm development shortly.

• Allow the next 1 to 3 hours window for snow arrival. When it starts it will get heavy in a hurry!
• Southern Maryland will start as snow and turn to ice and rain overnight.
• Washington, Annapolis, Baltimore will have Blizzard Conditions build in near and after midnight.  This may include parts of York and Lancaster Counties.

Radar Simulation