Why show a storm two days away during a nice Halloween day? Because the strong southern storm will stay out Maryland this weekend, but arrive Monday morning. Also, I get to show off the warm start to November to counter the dark afternoons as we return to Standard Time. So we get through Sunday dry, and some may stay dry Monday. Let’s hope the good weather for the Ravens game can avoid the tears that have followed much of this season. This weather event not a big deal for us locally, but interesting to plot for hints into a developing pattern. There is a suggestion for a push of moderate rain for a few hours Monday beyond Baltimore. But the overall hit will stay to the south. A big split from a few inches of rain to just a few drops. That is what we see, with most falling south of US-50.
The main purpose of this post is to highlight the NAM model radar simulation showing the rain Monday. Below compare the rainfall forecast to the GFS and NCEP WPC. There is a potent storm for the south, just missing us. Salisbury will be in it, but still a spread of almost a full inch difference in forecast rainfall. If this was winter, it would be frustrating for snow lovers. Let’s hope this doesn’t lead to frustration next season because storm tracks like this have sharp cut-offs and big bust potential.
Radar Simulation –> SLIDER
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NAM Rain Total
GFS Rain Total
Wide View:
NCEP WPC Rainfall
Temperatures: Warm First Week Of November
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