SundayNovember1We have showers this morning and I didn’t call it. Too much reliance on one model while dismissing another. It is mild and the rain has been light, but I had to point that out.  Now that the clocks are back to Standard Time, fellow weather geeks can rejoice that computer models and updates will be available an hour earlier. But we will have to wait a week until we really get to put that to use. A storm in the south has brought showers today, but most will stay to our south and the rest of the week looks quiet and warm.  If you are a fan of cold and snowy weather, consider the old adage for March: In like a lion, out like a lamb. November can behave the opposite way. A warm, Indian Summer pattern to start can lead to a cold Thanksgiving or end to the month..

I want to be accountable for dismissing the NAM model with rain today.  I didn’t give it enough credit. But it is just a morning thing and will not impact the Ravens game. If you have football plans or otherwise, here is the radar simulation for today. Note that this same model however called for much more rain Monday and it looks like it will be wrong.

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My last weather update also showed this model giving us more rain with the GFS model keeping us dry.  That seems to be the winner. It looks like Monday will be a ‘south of Rt 50’ event. So the extra hour of mooring daylight should also be mostly dry for central Maryland.  Here is the rain timeline and forecast with the warm temperature outlook below. We could see 70F around Baltimore a few days this week, then turning cooler next weekend.

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Warm Week

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Chip KidWxDevicesGet the award winning Kid Weather App I made with my oldest son and support our love for science, weather, and technology. Our 3 year anniversary of the release and our contribution to STEM education is this November. It has been downloaded in 60 countries, and works in both temperature scales. With your support we can expand on the fun introduction to science and real weather.