Screen Shot2015-10-30 06_00_53There will be a lot of change over the next few days. This morning is already colder, but another push will kick up the winds and clouds this afternoon and set the stage for a chilly Halloween.  But it will be dry for trick or treating and parties.  It’s the next storm that arrives Sunday that is in question. This point in the year, I like to share with you a comparison of computer models to show how they can vary with storm outlooks. It also helps to gauge what bias exists (timing and shifting tracks) and which might do better in the winter. I will highlight the better model later. Also- If you are familiar with the Canadian GEM model I show in winter, I rely on that mostly in cold weather patterns. That is when it shines.

This go around the split is either showers all day Sunday and a very wet Monday, or a near miss by the rain to the south.  I am leaning towards a compromise between these two. I think most of Sunday will be dry, but we will get rain at night into Monday. These models show all or nothing.  After that passes, the start of November will be warm. If you are a snow lover, this is good news. More warm air can be a precursor for colder air to arrive between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Reminder: Standard Time Returns

Clocks back 1 hour early Sunday morning. You will notice it next week. Compare sun times in Baltimore:

Friday Rise at 7:32 AM; Set at 6:08 PM

Monday Rise at 6:35 AM; Set at 5:04 PM

Computer Model Sliders

WRF Model

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GFS Model

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Temperature Outlook:

Warm Start To November


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Chip KidWxDevicesGet the award winning Kid Weather App I made with my oldest son and support our love for science, weather, and technology. Our 3 year anniversary of the release and our contribution to STEM education is this November. It has been downloaded in 60 countries, and works in both temperature scales. With your support we can expand on the fun introduction to science and real weather.