r11The core of the former epic Hurricane Patricia are now sitting over the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico. It is still close to shore, so strengthening is slow, but it is happening. The flooding in Texas is a result of this storm picking up more moisture, but also interacting with a Mid Latitude cold front. This is also falling on an area that had heavy rain last week. The next phase we need to watch is how this storm will intensify a little and the energy on the east side of the storm that will speed up the mid level winds thus expanding the threat for severe storms.

Flooding And Severe Storm Outlook

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Over 10 inches of rain had fallen on central Texas Saturday and energy is spreading to the east to Louisiana. In fact since this image was generated, the Houston area has had between 5 and 9 inches of rain. As we track the dumping of rain, we also need to consider the risk for individual cells that may rotate. This means stronger rain and the potential for tornadoes. That wind flow feeding into the larger circulation will be from the southeast. That is the prime wind direction for central Maryland to see severe weather. As the core of Patricia passes to our west, we will be on the east side and get those winds Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Here are two sliders showing the timeline forecast for the mid level winds and circulation. The first tracks it across the deep south. The second below tracks it into the Ohio Valley,  Mid Atlantic, and Northeast. The worst conditions will be in the mountains west and north of Baltimore. The time frame for our region might not tap into the peak heat of the day, but the southeast wind flow supports heavy rain bands and potential severe cells.

Track In The South

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Track In The Eastern US

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Mid Atlantic Rainfall?

This is the latest outlook from NCEP, smoothing the model projections. I would pay attention to the adjustment of this to the east. The range of 0.50″ to 2 inches locally with higher amounts in the mountains is not including the southeast wind and severe weather potential off of the Chesapeake Bay. So I would expect the trend to go up.

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