Screen Shot2015-10-24 09_30_48As of Saturday morning October 24, Patricia had been downgraded to a Tropical Storm with winds of 50 mph. Quite a transition from 85 mph winds Thursday morning, then 200 mph winds the same time on Friday. This quite break down was expected thanks to the rugged terrain of Mexico, but the circulation aloft is there viable. Here is a look at how it could pass south Texas for a second pulse. Landfalling tropical systems often have flooding and severe weather that can linger for days. But could this enhance again?  There have been cases documenting an Atlantic or Pacific storm crossing Central America and redeveloping. I’ll expand on that later. But the intensity of Patricia makes this track and emergence as rare as things get.

Saturday Morning Set Up:

Patricia was a small storm, which is why the damage reports so far from Puerto Villarta 55 miles form landfall are not as bad as some feared. The impact zone was small. But now that it has weakened to a tropical storm, it is spreading out. Now this it is farther north, it is speeding up. Forward movement of 25 mph takes it to Texas on Sunday. It should drop to a minimum tropical storm or depression in the process.

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This is the GFS Model showing the mid level winds. This is the best display of the energy potential available as Patricia could reach the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. That is the energy source for tropical systems and could feed into further development for a short period.  The suggestion is that it won’t explode like it did before, but to climb back to tropical storm intensity is not out of the questions. Notice only a slight drop in pressure on the modeling, but it does seem to organize into Monday.

I want to add the disclaimer that the GFS Model still has it’s faults, and when we were dealing with Joaquin it was among many with the error of hitting the east coast. But instead, the push was farther east.

I want to keep an eye on model errors since many other events had that same east result. That could be an influence of the upper level El Nino winds and give us insight into the winter season. It’s thing to have an expected east coast storm veer out to sea, but in the winter an inland mountains storm could result in coastal events with the same model error. Something to think about….


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Mid Atlantic Impact? Tuesday and Wednesday

I had to point out this image of the smiley face over Kentucky and Tennessee, but they will NOT be smiling with severe storms on Tuesday. This wind image shows the mid level energy available. This is the US impact I mentioned yesterday, and Thursday for this week and long range pattern hints.

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The wind field will expand on Wednesday as the remains of Patricia merge with another storm. Central Maryland will be on the edge, but strong to severe storms are possible for us into Pennsylvania and New York.

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