The last update of September is the first major storm of the season with impact on land. Danny reached Cat 3 back in August, but that was way out to sea and didn’t get much attention. Hurricane Joaquin now has winds measured by the latest Air Force Recon Mission of 115 mph. Hurricane force winds reach 35 miles from the center, tropical storm force winds extend 140 miles. The movement is still to the southwest at 6 mph. This is important to track for the coast landfall solution. The Eruo model that went out to sea had the storm dropping farther south.
Air Fore Recon Measured 113 knot + winds at flight level
The National Hurricane Center forecast has the track still up the Chesapeake Bay. The timing is Sunday for landfall, clipping OBX, then into Maryland. Once again, there will be variation based on the forward speed and intensity resulting in how Joaquin interacts with surrounding weather systems. Here is a quick look at their forecast track.
I will be up early with a look at how the other models are handling this with the overnight update. Also, we can’t forget that moderate to heavy rain is expected to arrive Friday, before the storm reaches us. That might be my first focus in the morning.
Forecast Models
Tropical Topics:
2015 Atlantic Storm Names and Forecast
History of naming Tropical Storms and Hurricanes
Tropical Storm Formation: Origin Maps For Each 10 Days Of Season, Video
Official Update from NHC at 11 PM EDT
LOCATION…23.8N 73.1W
ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR
ABOUT 170 MI…275 KM E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS… 115 MPH…185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE… 951 MB…28.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————– CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding Andros Island and Bimini.
The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, but excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for… * Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding Andros Island and Bimini
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for… * Bimini A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, but excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
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