Thursday August 26 2021
The central Caribbean Sea is the focus of a new tropical system of interest. Tropical Depression Nine has been identified by the National Hurricane Center. An organizing central Low Pressure has winds of 35 mph.
Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is en route to investigate.
This identified is the step just prior to it being named, when winds reach or exceed 40 mph. When that happens, likely by tonight, it will be called Ida.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands and parts of Cuba.
Surface Weather Map
Updated at 2 PM Thu Aug 26
- LOCATION…17.5N 79.5W
- ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM SW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
- ABOUT 165 MI…270 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH…55 KM/H
- PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
- MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES
Compare Model Forecast
There seems to be very good agreement with this system to reach the Louisiana coast. It is rare to see consensus like this so early in the formation. When the Tropical Storm forms, likely tonight, then a more defined central Low Pressure will be fed into the models. If there is a shift, we will see it then.
Note: This storm may very well impact our weather in the Mid Atlantic by the middle of next week. That is why extra attention will be paid to tracking the progress, and inland expectations.
National Hurricane Center Forecast Track/Cone
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
- * Cayman Islands
- * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
Forecast Wind Maps
Tropical Storm Force Winds
Hurricane Force Winds
Jet Stream Forecast (GFS)
The upper level winds effect the inland push of TD Nine/Ida next week. This will spread rain and cooler air our way by Tuesday or Wednesday.
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