August 18 Remains Of TS Fred Bring Severe Storm Risk

Wednesday August 18 2021

The remains of Tropical Storm Fred are moving up the mountains this morning and will pass by western Maryland. The muggy air is a signal of the moisture and energy that will likely erupt in multiple rounds of heavy rain, with some severe storms.

This will reach central Maryland and along the Chesapeake Bay during the afternoon and evening. More storms farther west near the storm track, less and later farther east towards the beaches.

Morning Surface Weather

The core of what was once Tropical Storm Fred is moving up the mountains. There is a lot of spin in the mid levels of the atmosphere. This is pulling lots of moisture with it on the east side.

It is very muggy this morning. The after may bring Watches and Warnings for severe storms.

Severe Storm Risk

During the afternoon and evening, strong storms may turn severe. The main threats:

Flash Flooding
Damaging Winds
Isolated Tornadoes

Storm Radar Simulation –> slider

12 PM to 10 PM

Rainfall Potential

There is a wide rain of possible totals spread across the models. I chose to show this to highlight the broad risk, but there may be pockets of heavy rain south of Baltimore as well depending on where lines of storms set up.

Weather Almanac: Climate Data

TODAY August 18

Normal Low in Baltimore: 65ºF

Record 51ºF in 1981

Normal High in Baltimore: 85ºF

Record 96º F 2019

Temperatures

This Afternoon

7 Day Forecast

While this looks mighty wet, it really is a ‘chance’ of scattered storms most days. There will be a cooling trend into the weekend.

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