July 13 Weather Hotter And More Humid With Risk For Severe Storms

Tuesday July 13 2021

Before we look at today’s weather, I thought it would be best to quickly recap what happened yesterday. We all got in on the heat and humidity, but an eruption of storms led to some damage and flooding… For spots!

I know that is vague but that is the way it works out sometimes.

Check out the rainfall estimate from Monday, where over 3 inches fell in part of Harford County.

Morning Surface Weather

We are still in a set up with a weak frontal boundary draped nearby. That will likely drift across Pennsylvania, where it will be the focus for the most severe weather.

Our region to the south of it does not have much trigger to ignite storms.

Like yesterday, we will need to see where they fire up and then track them. Subtle boundaries can set up in the heat of the day, then become more obvious as the clouds build.

Where the storms do form, then can drop over 1” rainfall per hour rates.

Severe Storm Outlook

Marginal for much of our region. The storms themselves only have about 30% risk for the region, and of them less than 30% can turn severe. However, there will be a risk for dangerous lightning with any shower that pops up.

A higher risk in northern York County, while a lower risk south of Annapolis.

Radar Simulation

These short range models continue to not do a good job. I am showing this more for timing than coverage. There is a hint of activity AFTER 3PM, and mainly well northwest of the cities.

But I expect we will see more storms than shown here.

Weather Almanac: Climate Data

TODAY July 13

Normal Low in Baltimore: 67ºF

Record 55ºF in 1978

Normal High in Baltimore: 88ºF

Record 99 F 1908

Afternoon Temperature Forecast

Heat Index

Looking Ahead

We should get a break on Thursday, only to be followed by increased storm risk this weekend.

7 Day Forecast

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