Tropical Storm Elsa Stronger Again: New Simulation Plus Tornado And Flooding Risk

Thursday July 8 2021

The 5 PM update had Elsa getting stronger again. It has been inland for over 24 hours, and was almost downgraded this morning. However, winds are now up to 50 mph. Some intensification was expected, but this happened sooner. The forward speed is up to 21 mph, so it all be racing through tonight.

Our region has multiple alerts along with severe thunderstorms that have developed this afternoon. I will compare them below, and there is a live radar and lightning widget.

Primarily we have a Tropical Storm Warning, Tornado Watch, and Flash Food Watch. But most of the impact from Elsa’s core will be south and east of Baltimore.

Tropical Storm Elsa Weather Alerts

There have been severe thunderstorms north of Baltimore that have promoted ‘warnings’. These are indirectly related to Elsa.

Flash Flood Watch along I-95 in metro Baltimore to Washington and Philadelphia, and all points east. Rainfall rates may reach 1 to 2 inches per hour. The peak rain will be overnight.

Tornado Watch: Southern Maryland closer to the path of Elsa. Tropical tornadoes are quick spin ups that are often rain wrapped and hard to see. There is vivid circulation aloft that can take any storm cell and rotate it.

Doppler Radar at 5 PM

Many storm cells have developed and prompted ‘Severe Thunderstorm Warnings’.

The northern line is more robust than models showed this morning, but I did suggest that might happen. This is not part of Elsa, but ripples in the atmosphere are helping to force theses storms into PA.

Radar Simulation —> slider

This is the best performing model, and still underestimating the coverage of the northern band of storms.

Notice the core rain for Elsa passing through overnight, but out of here before sunrise.

Live Radar and Lightning Widget

Wind Animation

Wind Snapshot

The ‘westerly’ wind component is good news for the western shore of the Bay, as the water will flow ‘away’.

The bad news is the ‘sloshing’ of water on the Eastern Shore. This is where high water and minor surge is likely.

Afternoon Surface Weather

Tropical Storm Elsa is moving try Raleigh, NC this afternoon. It remains well inland but has shown some intensification in sustained winds.

Tropical Storm Elsa Satellite Loop

The satellite loop below shows how potent this system is. If it had been over water, it would have been an escalating hurricane now.

That well organized structure is why there is still high potential for tropical tornadoes (EF-0 to EF-2), and Flash Flooding.

5 PM Update From National Hurricane Center


LOCATION...36.3N 78.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Full Tropical Watches and Warnings


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

Recap Notes:

Pop Up Thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, but not directly related to Elsa

The closest pass should be overnight within a few hours of midnight…

Biggest impact will be south and east of Baltimore.

This will be gone by daybreak Friday.

More thunderstorms arrive Friday afternoon, not from Elsa.

Sunshine State Of Mind

I am done with the cold and snow (for the season). I am embracing my wife’s mantra of Sunshine State of Mind.

This was designed by Shannon Berk and we will be wearing it through spring and to the beach.

Double Benefit: Proceeds will be split between our nonprofit Just In Power Kids and the development of my new weather website. That has been scheduled to be ready to launch in May.