Elsa Has Become First Hurricane Of The Season

Friday July 2 2021

Elsa just formed as a tropical storm yesterday and has been in a hurry. The forward speed has been on a tear at 28 mph to the west. Now the sustained winds are up to 75 mph according to Air Force Reconnaissance.

Interests for this storm include the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, and Florida. Then there is potential for this to impact the Eastern US and Mid Atlantic through Thursday.

Satellite Image

Large Storm

Hurricane Force Winds extend 25 miles from the center.

Tropical Storm Force Winds reach 140 miles away.

This morning Barbados recorded 74 mph sustained wind with a gust to 86 mph

Satellite Loop

National Hurricane Center Update

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 61.2W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

Long Range Track

Today: Windward and Leeward Islands
Saturday: Eastern Caribbean
Sunday: Near Jamaica and Cuba
Next Tuesday: Near Florida

Outlook may bring the center or some impact to Mid Atlantic By Thursday. See the forecast animation below.

Closer Look At The Forecast Track

This Weekend

Next Week/Florida Landfall

Outlook: Mid Atlantic Impact?

This is the GFS Model forecast from early this morning, and it shows a path through Ocean City Thursday night.

I DO NOT BUY THIS!!!

This was prior to Elsa becoming a hurricane AND has the position WEST of Florida, instead of the landfall NHC shows up central Florida. Also, the fast forward speed plays a role now in where it will be and what other systems it can interactive with 5 days away.

That is more important for where it may end up by next Thursday. But we need to watch it closely.

Wind (40+) Arrival Time

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

Barbados
St. Lucia
St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

Martinique
The southern coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti
Entire coast of Haiti

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
Grenada and its dependencies
Saba and Sint Eustatius
Jamaica
Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few

hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed

to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the

Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba

should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and

warnings will likely be required later today.

In Case You Missed It

July 1 Storm Video, Photos, Radar, and Damage Map

Sunshine State Of Mind

I am done with the cold and snow (for the season). I am embracing my wife’s mantra of Sunshine State of Mind.

This was designed by Shannon Berk and we will be wearing it through spring and to the beach.

Double Benefit: Proceeds will be split between our nonprofit Just In Power Kids and the development of my new weather website. That has been scheduled to be ready to launch in May.