Severe Thunderstorm Watch With Enhanced Risk Monday June 21

Monday June 21 2021

A strong cold front will be bumping into our hot air mass. There is some increased humidity and instability thanks to the nearby pass of Tropical Storm Claudette.  The net result will be a wide outbreak of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, include the chance for supercell development.

Large hail and a few tornadoes are a possibility today.

This post shows the latest info, radar simulation, and live radar with lightning widget below.

 

Severe Storm Outlook

Close Look

The Enhanced Risk includes southern Pennsylvania, with central Maryland in the Slight Risk. 

There will be thunderstorms with the potential not a promise they turn severe.

 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Maryland West of the Chesapeake Bay, and southern Pennsylvania.

Threats Include:

• Winds over 60 mph
• Hail over 1 inch diameter
• Isolated Tornadoes

Any Storm May Contain:

• Flash Flooding
• Dangerous Lightning

 

 

 

CAPE: Convective Available Potential Energy

Levels over 2,500 mark severe storm likelihood. These levels suggest supercells many develop along the front ridge of the mountains between 4 and 6 PM.

 

 

Please Note:

Watch means it might happen

Warnings will be issued when a severe storm is spotted and can be tracked. 

 

 

Afternoon Surface Map

The cold front will not reach us until tomorrow. Ripples ahed of it will be responsible for multiple waves of energy. This will translate to a few lines of thunderstorms. 

 

Severe Storm Outlook

Wider Look

The maximum energy will be to our north, but we are own the edge of the Enhanced Risk Storm Risk region from NOAA.

 

Live Radar and Lightning

See the radar simulation below.

 

Radar Simulaiton —->slider

This product has NOT been doing a good job lately. It has underplayed the activity of severe storms AND the timing has been as much a 1 to 2 hours late.

I show you this for a guide. Please compare to the live radar above.