May 19 Weather Heating Up But Watching Coastal Winds

Wednesday May 20 2021

Summer heat will be more noticeable today as temperatures climb through the middle 80s. But we are in a season and pattern where the thermometers can vary 10 to 15 degrees. (Bank and car thermometers tend to run too warm).

This is the anniversary of the record heat wave back in 1962. Check out the numbers below.

Two things I am focusing on:

I have been suggesting we could see our first 90-degree day of the year this week. But I continue to see model guidance showing the winds shifting from the east later Thursday and Friday. This will be off the water and may hold nearby areas much cooler than inland.
Area schools are starting their graduation ceremonies this weekend. The concerns are will it be too warm and humid and/or will there be thundershowers. That last part is hard to pin point a few days ahead of time.

Morning Water Vapor Satellite

The ‘yellow’ streak is a band of very dry air aloft. This is why we expect a clear sky to remain all day.

Morning Surface Weather

High Pressure is taking a hold in the eastern US, which will direct rain around it to our west.

Weather Almanac: Climate Data For Baltimore

Normal Low in Baltimore: 53ºF; Record 38ºF in 2009

Normal High in Baltimore: 75ºF, Record 98ºF 1962

*1962 had a 3-Day Record Heat Wave

18th = 97ºF
19th = 98ºF
20th =95ºF

There was also a 96ºF day back on the 15th.

Temperature Forecast

Temps jump into the mid 80s today, with many places reaching the 80s. Still cooler by the water and in the mountains.

Wednesday Afternoon

Thursday Temperatures

Morning

More summer like feel with a warm start to the day.

Afternoon

This may be the first signal of a cooler influence from the water, while much hotter temps build inland. This can break or bust the forecast for BWI.

Winds

The easterly wind off of the Atlantic and Chesapeake may be a factor cooling nearby afternoon highs.

Friday

This was the say I had expected 90ºF, but new data is suggesting a slight wind shift from the east. That would depend on where the center of the High Pressure ‘dome’ is located.

Temperatures

Rain Animation

Showers and storms will begin to break into the ridge by this weekend. This will be hard to pin point, and will NOT reach everyone.

It looks like the best chance for thundershowers may be Saturday afternoon and evening (40% chance). That means 60% chance that you remain dry.

7 Day Forecast

I have made an adjustment to ‘Friday’. This is going to be a thorn in my side this week. We can easily end up either near 90ºF or in the 70s all based on the wind direction.

Sunshine State Of Mind

I am done with the cold and snow (for the season). I am embracing my wife’s mantra of Sunshine State of Mind.

This was designed by Shannon Berk and we will be wearing it through spring and to the beach.

Double Benefit: Proceeds will be split between our nonprofit Just In Power Kids and the development of my new weather website. That has been scheduled to be ready to launch in May.