May 4 Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Tuesday May 4 2021

Soon after my previous report, The National Weather Service issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for our region until 8 PM. This reinforced what we discussed earlier as a cluster of storms will move through our region. Perhaps in two waves during late afternoon and this evening.

Metro areas are most likely to see the peak activity between 5 PM and 8 PM. We we have a wider window for western areas earlier and Bay/Delmarva into the evening and dark hours tonight. See the live radar below and compare to the two latest computer model simulations to help track the timing.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Almost all of Virginia, and most of Maryland west of the Chesapeake Bay.

This includes Hagerstown, Frederick, Westminster, Baltimore, Bel Air, Elkton, Germantown, Mt. Airy, Ellicott City, Annapolis, and south to Lexington Park and St. Mary’s

Severe Thunderstorm Risk Factors Factors

Not all storms will reach severe limits, and not all parts of a severe cell will produce this. But here are the criteria possible:

Dangerous Lightning
Flash Flooding
Wind Gusts to 60 mph
Hail over 1 inch in diameter
Isolated Tornadoes

Risk Map

Radar Simulations and Live Radar

I’ve placed the radar between the two simulations so it is easy for you to scroll and compare.

HRRR Model —-> slider

Live Radar and Lightning

NAM 3 Km Model —-> slider

Sunshine State Of Mind

I am done with the cold and snow (for the season). I am embracing my wife’s mantra of Sunshine State of Mind.

This was designed by Shannon Berk and we will be wearing it through spring and to the beach.

Double Benefit: Proceeds will be split between our nonprofit Just In Power Kids and the development of my new weather website. That has been scheduled to be ready to launch in May.