Storm Update: More Rain And Cooler Temps Shifts Severe Focus South

Sunday March 28 2021

Where is the warm air? Will we still have severe storms?  Those are questions I am guessing you are asking and I wanted to elaborate.

The morning rain lasted a little longer into the afternoon than models I showed this morning. The reason for this update is to explain the lower the expectations for severe storms, at least in central Maryland. * We could still get warnings manly for strong winds associated with the Squall Line.

There is still a chance for more severe elements such as hail in Southern Maryland and parts of Delmarva.  See the satellite, radar, temperatures, and simulation maps below.

Strange things happen on days with a full moon, and this time more rain kept our temperatures down which will result in less severe activity in our region.

Surface Weather Map

At 2 PM, the surface weather map shows the cold front just entering western PA and West Virginia. That is the spark for a line of heavy rain and some storms.  It will also help kick up the strong winds through tonight.

 

 

Temperatures at 2 PM

The rain, low clouds, and even fog has hindered warming. Most of the region has reached the lower 60s.

As I mentioned in this morning’s report, we need a break in the clouds to get temps to surge into the mid 70s. Without that, the fuel is not present to support storms turning severe. But it will be a bumpy ride this evening.

 

Satellite Loop

To get warm air in a hurry, the clouds need to break and let the sun cook for a few hours. We see those breaks, more near and south of Rt. 50. That is where there is a better chance to reach the 70s.

 

 

Temperature Forecast

The HRRR is still pushing the warm air into Southern Maryland and lower Delmarva. That may be enough for those regions to get stronger storms when the line arrives.

 

Radar Loop Noon to 2 PM

The persistent bands of light rain and fog over the last two hours have listed any chance to break out the sun.

The squall line with heavy rain and potential for thunder was just entering Garrett County in western Maryland. 

 

 

Forecast: Radar Simulation —> slider

The HRRR Model is the most frequently updated model with adjustments every hour comparing actual conditions to forecasts. 

This still shows a narrow line of briefly heavy rain. There may be some thunder mixed in, but the risk for severe limits has lowered a lot.