Sunday Night Update

With the Winter Weather Advisory in place Monday morning, we usually expect 1 to 3 inches of snow. There is one factor that is critical to both snow totals and impact on the roads: Timing!

In this post we will look at the arrival time, my call for snowfall, and compare to other model snow forecasts.

If this speeds up by as little as one or two hours, it can make a big difference with the results on Monday.  The problem is that time window has been what we have seen with early arrivals of many other systems this winter.

The good news is that we all thaw with temps in the mid 30s in the afternoon. This will end with rain in many areas before the ride home.. But heavy rain and thunder possible across Delmarva.

Morning Road Problems? My Suggestion:

  • Snow stickage by sunrise: From Hagerstown west to Garrett County.
  • Likely to be a problem 8 AM to Noon: Frederick, Westminster, York/Lancaster.
  • Roads might be a problem for the first two hours: Germantown, Mt. Airy, Hunt Valley/Hereford, Fallston.
  • Some Slush Maybe At The Start,  But Mostly Wet: Washington, Columbia, Baltimore, Annapolis, Bel Air, Elkton. This is more likely if the snow arrives earlier.



Snow Timeline And Expectations 


Winter Weather Advisory

Most models had been showing the snow reaching central Maryland between 9 to 10 AM.  Even after our cold weekend, that time of day will get an assist from daylight in metro areas to keep roads wet.

But, if this arrives closer to 8 AM, then it can may briefly overtake the pavement and allow more snow to accumulate.

This also complicates the work and school commute.


February 22 Winter Weather Advisory Monday Snow


Temperatures: Morning

We start below freezing in the Advisory Area, but all thaw by the afternoon.

February 22 Temperatures Monday 8 AM


HRRR Model

  • This high resolution model keeps increasing the arrival time with each update.
  • Here we see the arrival between Frederick and Baltimore between 8 AM and 9 AM.
  • Heavy rain might produce some thunder on Delmarva in the afternoon.

Explore more: I showed the NAM 3 Km Model simulation in my last report.


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Temperature Afternoon

Should end up in the mid 30s for all areas that got morning snow.

February 22 Temperatures Monday 4 PM


My Call For Snowfall

February 22 My Call For Snowfall


Other Computer Model Snow Forecasts

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Next Update:

I will be up early to track the arrival of the snow.  I will try to post any new info before 6 AM.

This timing really will be the make or break for impact on the fringe of the Advisory region.



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