Monday February 15 2021 Afternoon Update

The historic winter storm and arctic blast continues to rage across the deep south and Ohio Valley. The snow drove to the. Texas border with Mexico, and is nor driving up the Ohio Valley.

Our region is on the edge of this pattern, with just and slight icing event inland this evening.

Over the weekend I mentioned that the snow and ice in place would refrigerate the atmosphere and we might trend colder. This storm is just too strong, and wait until you see the warm air that pushed into part of Maryland tomorrow. The cold air will return Wednesday, and set us up for our taste of this action on Thursday.

February 15 weather Monday afternoon


This storm will ride to our west and bring in mild air Tuesday, but the cold air returns Wednesday keeping much of Maryland near or below freezing again. That sets the stage for our prime event this week:

Thursday: Our Turn

Snow and Ice Storm

See the timeline slider below


February 15 winter storm snow ice Thursday



Please keep this point in mind: I shared it on Twitter earlier



Back To Near Term Weather First

Winter Weather Advisory Tonight

Some icing is possible just north and west of metro Baltimore. The good news is that warmer air is expected to move in overnight, melting many of the local iced areas by daybreak.

February 15 Monday winter weather advisory



Freezing Rain Forecast

February 15 weather Tuesday freezing rain total



Afternoon Temperatures

February 15 weather 12 PM Monday temperatures



Freezing Rain Tonight

February 15 weather Monday evening freezing rain



NAM 3Km Animation

4 PM Monday to 7 AM Tuesday

Warmer air and more cold rain (nor freezing) expected after midnight.

February 15 weather freezing rain tonight


Temperatures –> slider

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Mild Push Tuesday Afternoon
Look at this spread across Maryland:
  • Mountains Region in Garrett County: Upper 20a
  • Central: Mid 40s
  • Lower Eastern Shore: Upper 60s
February 15 weather Tuesday afternoon temperatures

Wednesday: Colder


February 15 weather temperatures Wednesday afternoon

Thursday Morning:

Cold Enough To Support Snow

February 15 weather temperatures Thursday morning



Snow and Ice Storm

This is the GFS Model. It had been warmer than the Euro I’ve been showing you.  It is falling in line with snow and ice, and I think we need to watch for a track shift east that could still trend even colder.

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How much snow?

Plan for a few inches and impact during the day, before the change over to ice.  More will likely fall in our northern counties, but we need to see how tonight’s storm and cold air to follow Wednesday behaves.  That will help present the storm track and extent of snow and ice.


Temperature Outlook 

February 15 weather temperature outlook Monday


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