January 25 Winter Weather Advisory Issued For Snow And Ice Later Today

Monday January 25 2021

A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for central inland locations starting at 4 PM. As mentioned in my previous reports, this will mostly be a freezing rain or icing event, but some snow and sleet may accumulated at the start. Of most importance has been the ground cooling enough, and then the timing for arrival and thawing Tuesday morning.

Winter Weather Advisory

 

 

Quick Notes:

While there may be some minor accumulation of sleet and snow, there will be more ice in the western Maryland Mountains. There a Winter Storm Warning is in place for icing that could be 0.25″ to 0.50″

 

Morning Set Up

The storm looks impressive on the map, but there is an expected split in the moisture expected to reach us.  We still get the icy mix, but the heaviest amounts will be to in the mountains and west.

 

Quick Cast: Central Maryland

 

 

Skipping Ahead To The Start Time:

 

 

My Updated Call For Snow/Ice

 

 

 

Comparing Models This Evening

A weird thing might occur and be confusing. Temperatures will get above freezing today, and the arrival could be rain or sleet. This should cool as the precipitation arrives, then gradually warm and change back tonight.

 

GFS Model

 

 

HRRR Model

 

 

Canadian GEM

 

 

European ECMWF

 

 

Evening Temperatures 

 

NAM 3 Km Radar Simulation —> slider

 

 

After Midnight Through Tuesday Morning

 

 

 

Temperatures 

 

 

 

 

 

Temperature Outlook 

 

 

What About The Thursday Storm?

I saw the latest models pushed the snow south. I am not worried about that. I expect this first storm may kick a little north, and the second one may follow, with a display on the models as this passes through.

We can address that next.

Faith in the Flakes – FITF