Sunday January 24 2021

This morning starts in the deep freeze for much of our region, but we remain dry to finish the weekend. This cold air is important to establish a cold ground before the first winter event arrives later on Monday. We still have a second ‘storm’ to watch Thursday that will be stronger and colder.  The question on that will be how close it tracks to us.


Two Storms Forecast Animation

Here is the Canadian GEM Model perspective. Here we see snow and freezing rain develop later Monday into Tuesday morning. I believe the thaw and rain (green) on Tuesday  might be a little overdone.  The second storm looks stronger and colder with more snow on Thursday.

January 24 weather snow freezing rain forecast



Closer Look

Let’s get back to the first event, which has always been advertised as a ‘mix’ event.  The cold air looks deep and strong enough to allow for a start with snow and sleet. The early call in this is for the potential of 1 to 2 inches, with some higher amounts on the north end. Snow and sleet with turn to freezing rain overnight into Tuesday morning.

I will post my call in the next report.

The slow push of warmer air and the cold, frozen ground will be the concern for ice lasting longer, regardless how much falls.  Here are the storm maps.


Cold Air Set Up: Temperatures

Sunday Morning Observations 

January 24 weather temperatures Sunday morning


Sunday Afternoon Forecast

January 24 weather temperatures Sunday afterrnoon


Monday Morning ForecastJanuary 24 weather temperatures Monday morning



Storm Set Up

The latest suggestion has the energy splitting Monday night.  We are still on for the arrival between 3 PM and 7 PM. This should begin as snow and sleet across most of the region.

The change might be less moisture if the northern peice splits and fades.  But there is still enough to make an impact into Tuesday morning.


January 24 weather snow storm Monday Euro


Forecast Maps: NAM 3KM Model

This is the most aggressive with the snow and ice, but does show the bulk before Tuesday morning.

The take away here is that there will be a burst with the onset, and lingering showers on Tuesday.


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Temperature Forecast
We always ride on the edge of freezing, and this will be the same.  Colder air remains inland, but thawing will occur sooner near the water and in the cities along I-95
January 24 weather temperature storm Monday night
January 24 weather temperature storm Tuesday Morning
Snow Potential: Model Forecast
The NAM 3 Km is the most aggressive and to be used as the ‘high end’. Please consider all the maps here, and we can see the average/most likely expectation is 1 to 2 inches. This is before any change over to sleet and freezing rain.
Also See:
High End Potential 
January 24 weather snow forecast NAM
More Likely (Euro and Canadian)
January 24 weather snow forecast ECMWF
January 24 weather snow forecast Canadian
Low End Snow Potential GFS
January 24 weather snow forecast GFS
Looking Ahead To Storm 2
This will be stronger, and drop more snow.  The real debate is how close it will track to us.  Recent trends suggest the northern/closer track is more likely, but I need to present both.
This is why we use multiple models.  I do not agree with the GFS for the first event, but it may have a better handle on the second event.
January 24 weather snow storm Thursday Euro
January 24 weather snow storm Thursday GFS


Temperature Outlook
The second storm will pull down colder air behind it Friday and Saturday.  
We are on for some mild air in early February for a couple of days.
January 24 weather temperature outlook


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