December 16 Evening Update: Ice More Snow And Refreeze By Morning

The burst of snow overachieved, but it put most areas in the expect snow zone already. If not there may another chance overnight with the back edge comma head of the storm.

Quick Note on what you will see in this post:

• My video of the ridiculous snow.
• Surface Analysis and Doppler.
• Return to ice for metro areas will be around midnight.
• Additional Snowfall MapReturn to snow for the region -Midnight to 5 AM.  
• Freezing Morning: Temperatures in much of the region will drop  into the 20s. What is wet may be iced up at daybreak.

Expect an icy morning! 

We still have this rain and ice mix for much of the region, and I will do the analysis below.  While there will be a burst of snow overnight, regardless of how much more you get, we all should drop into the 20s west of the Bay.

In a normal world, that would mean school delays and closings.I don’t need to explain much about that. But for anyone who does commute, I would consider another plan.

 

My Ridiculous Snow Video

I wanted to show you what we experienced in the local Tundra Zone. I was outside playing football with my kids and a neighbor, and had to stop to record this GIANT Flakes!  We received 3 inches of snow that hour, and turned to sleet 10 minutes later

 

 

 

Round 1 Snow Total

We got 8 inches when the sleet took over.

Please note how much you received. The sleet and rain will compact it down. So if or when you add to it, the final total will not reflect the full amount for the storm.

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Evening Analysis: More on the way!

Low Pressure is plotted EAST of where the models suggested. That is allowing that cold air dam to hold for more interior areas.

That Low Pressure is now really beginning to intensify as the upper level energy is catching up to it.

 

 

Will there be more?

Yes!  We can see that developing on radar this evening.

The ice and snow zone to the west has increased in activity as the Low Pressure and upper level energy approach each other.

This is what will pivot through Our region tonight when the Surface Low moves up the coast.

 

 

Temperatures:

That Freezing Line Is Holding Strong

This also means a lot of ice in these areas, with more snow on the way.

 

 

 

 

Short Range Model Forecasts

I still do not fully trust the models at this point, but I wanted to show you what they are displaying.

Keep in mind the snow arrived 2 hours early this morning. So we might apply the faster speed here as well.

 

Midnight

NAM 3 Km

This has the Low Pressure near Atlantic City.

The icy mix still for most of the interior just west and north of I-95.

 

 

 

HRRR Model

This is a little colder, and brings the icy mix back down to metro Washington.  Watch that Heavy Snow zone starting to move back east.

 

 

European ECMWF Model —-> slider

Let’s back up to 10 PM and go to daybreak.

I’ve highlighted the wind direction as that will play a role in the progression of cold air.

 

 

Temperatures

Freezing at Daybreak!

Widespread 20s expected at daybreak west of the Bay.

 

Thawing By Noon

 

 

Another Look At My Final Call For Snowfall

• Many areas already verified, or will be very close. The overnight push should do it,
• What you measure in the morning may not reflect the complete snow after ice and rain compacting.

 

 

Recapping The Warnings And Advisories

 

 

Also see:

 

 

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