Thursday December 3 2020

This morning is clear and chilly.   Many areas have temperatures dropped into the 20s and lower 30s, but it will not be this cold for the next storm. It will be chilly with heavy rain starting tomorrow.

The track of this storm from the Louisiana Gulf Coast to the East Coast is what I projected in my winter outlook. This should be a common theme this winter.  But the cold air needed for wintry precipitation is limited this time. However, there may be enough on the back end to mix with sleet and snow.

Morning Surface Weather

Morning Temperatures 

The 20s have been reached in the Capital District and even Lower Eastern Shore.

Afternoon Temperatures 

High clouds will be moving in, which may provide views of solar halos or sun dogs.

Temps remain a little below average.

Friday Weather

The storm may spread light rain showers in the morning. The steady rain will develop during the afternoon and evening. Heavy rain will fall with increasing wind overnight and Saturday morning. This storm will become a snow maker for New York and New England.

The GFS Model is now showing that hint of sleet (purple) for northern Suburbs early Saturday.  Compare to the European Model slider below.

European ECMWF Model Forecast —> slider

Here we can see more pronounced period of snow/sleet for northern Maryland and Southern PA early Saturday morning.

My Take:

As I wrote last night, the snow from the last storm was more than expected and still on the ground. That can play a role with supporting the colder air feeding into this next storm.  This is why I believe models will be trending a little colder. This would result in a better chance to at least end the next storm with some wintry precipitation in our region.

I am not seeing a winter storm for our region, just snow and and sleet for the last few hours possible. This is also important to pick out now, so we can stay ahead of model bias with future storms this winter.

Storm Total Rain

This will be a heavy rain event with most of our region east of the mountains in the 1 to 2 inch range.

Temperature Outlook 

Do you remember the NOAA Outlook was for a warmer than normal December?  That obviously was wrong.

So looking long term, we need to consider the lack of confidence, even if you see  any bump up.  The overall upper level pattern supports a more wintry set up.