November 10 2020

Over the last seven days, Baltimore has reached the 70s every day and set two record high temperatures. That included today with a high of 78ºF, nearly 20 degrees above normal. That is about to end with some heavy rain over the next two days.

The rain will arrive later Wednesday morning, then bring heavy bands and some potential thunder. It will be an abrupt change Wednesday and Thursday.

Excessive Rain Outlook

Our region has the potential for flooding.  The Slight Risk here is for rainfall that could reach into the 2 to 4 inch range.

Below is a look at the rain timeline and three different computer model rainfall forecasts.

November 10 weather Excessive Rain Outlook



Tuesday Evening Weather Set Up

The combination of a cold front and moisture well ahead of Tropical Storm Eta will team up to send a lot of moisture our way.

Note: Tropical Storm Eta has 60 mph winds and is closer to Cuba than the US for now. It will drift north, but we are not getting the storm itself.  For the purpose of this post, I am only showing our rain. I will update the storm details in my next report.

November weather Tuesday evening


Rain Timeline(s)

Radar Simulation Wednesday —> slider

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Radar Simulation Thursday —> slider


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How Much Rain?

Let’s compare this NAM 3 Km Model to the GFS and ECWMF below.

NAM 3 Km

This shows the highest rain totals, and is often a little overblown. It is likely to be a little too high this time as well.

November 10 weather rain Eta Thursday NAM


GFS Model

This seems a little more realistic. A general 1 to 2 inches of rain, with higher spots in central Maryland.

Higher amounts are likely in southern Maryland and on Delmarva.

November 10 weather rain Eta Thursday GFS


European Model

This is the lowest of the three model outputs. This is similar in layout to the GFS, with the most rain across southern Maryland and Delmarva.

November 10 weather rain Eta Thursday ECMWF



My Take Away:

The regional threshold for flooding would be in the 2 to 3 inch range.  However, we could also have some downpours with storm drains clogged with leaves.  So some isolated flooding is possible with less total rain, but quick bursts.

The entire event will be ending during Thursday.  So there will be improvement to end the work week, but it will no be as warm.



Forecast Snapshot

Click the image for the local weather pages or see your town in the list below.

November 11 weather forecast central Maryland



14 Local Maryland Pages (and York PA)

We have made a page for Maryland Weather which gives you the current conditions for 14 present area locations.

Local Hourly Forecasts and Local Radar
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Maryland Weather Page

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