Wednesday Morning October 7 2020
Hurricane Delta lost a little speed as it interacted with land overnight. This morning the top winds are 115 mph as it appears to be threading the needle between Cozumel and Cancun Mexico. This is a small storm, but perfectly placed to impact this region. Hurricane force winds reach 30 miles from the center, while tropical storm force winds reach 140 miles away.
Thousands of tourists spent the night in the shelters and wake up to the worst conditions this morning. This Category 3 storm at 4 Am local time, was 35 miles from Cozumel and moving at 17 mph. The worst conditions will be at sunrise. It can bring Storm Surge of 8 to 12 Ft, along with up to 10 inches of rain.
Hurricane Delta Morning Plot
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Hurricane Delta Wednesday Morning
National Hurricane Center Update
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 86.4W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
The highest cloud tops are in white and pink. Still a very ragged center with no eye present. But this is very potent is a small focused region. Look closely at the ripples, those are gravity waves.
Computer Model Forecast Plots
The consensus is along the middle of the Louisiana coast, this is to the west of New Orleans, but may still carry the max impact with the stronger side to the east.
National Hurricane Center Forecast And Advisories
Warnings and Watches
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Isle of Youth * Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico * Dzilam to Progreso Mexico GFS Model Forecast Animation Notice the rain arriving in our region Sunday morning, and possibly lasting into Monday with the remnant Low passing into western Maryland. It is too early to say how much. This track would NOT bring surge or coastal flooding risk to our region. That will be absorbed by the Gulf Landfall.
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