Thursday Rain Update From Sally And More Tropical Activity In Gulf

Thursday September 17 2020

Sally is now considered a Post Tropical Cyclone with no more advisories from the National Hurricane Center. However it still has an impressive circulation on the satellite loop, with plenty of rain moving well north of the Low in Georgia.

That rain is just now reaching southern Maryland. Some of the norther edge is expected in metro Baltimore tonight, but the very heavy rain will stay to the south. After looking at the latest radar simulation, we shift back to the Gulf of Mexico for what could be the next and last ‘named’ storm. After Wilfred, we go to the Greek Alphabet.

Afternoon Weather Set Up

The remnant Low of Sally is in southern Georgia, but the rain has shifted well to the north. A very impressive feeder band is pulling a thin line of heavy rain in from the Gulf of Mexico, across northern Florida, and into South Carolina. Some severe weather is still developing in this area, even though this is no longer an official tropical system.

Sally Satellite Loop

This visible loop shows the surface circulation well, along with that feeder band. The northern edge of the clouds has spread across our region. Look to the top edge and see the cirrus cloud fringe across New York and Ohio. If this storm was still over water, it would have a lot of support aloft to have keep it going. But this is dislodged from the surface Low now.

Radar Loop

This radar loop matches the same image shows off that feeder band I mentioned above. It also highlights the bulk of rain now reaching into southern Maryland.

Radar Snapshot at 2 PM

Radar Simulation —> slider

The NAM 3 Km forecast is trying to bring in light rain across central Maryland later this afternoon and evening. This may be a bit early and overdone. But light rain should try to arrive this evening near Baltimore.

The moderate to heavy rain will clip southern Maryland and linger into the morning Friday. It will clear out in the afternoon.

Rain Forecast

This is on the high end of the potential. Notice the sharp drop off from 3 to 6 inches to under 1 inch.

We do expect a VERY CHILLY weekend to follow. See that full forecast here in my morning report.

Tropical Update

We are just past the climatological peak season and almost out of names on the list. The last name available for 2020 in the Atlantic is Wilfred. That might be given to that system in the Gulf of Mexico (currently Invest 90L). We may also need to look at Hurricane Teddy for high waves along the east coast and a track near northern New England.

September 17 National Hurricane Center Activity

Gulf of Mexico System (Invest 90L)

This has 90% chance to be named in the next 48 hours.

The computer model guidance has it moving northeast and looping around the western Gulf looking for steering currents.

September 17 Tropical Invest 90 forecast tracks

Hurricane Teddy is a Cat 3 Major Hurricane

This afternoon, winds were 120 mph, but it is no where near land.

National Hurricane Center Forecast Map (will auto update)

Computer Model Guidance Plots

September 17 Hurricane Teddy Forecast Tracks

Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days

Atmospheric Memory Of Hurricanes Over Thousands Of Years Shaped The Coast

Also See:

Severe Storm Report Photos And Video From Thursday

Maryland Trek Team Shirt

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Maryland Trek Cycle Jerseys From Hill Killer

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Maryland Strong Love ❤️

My ‘bonus’ daughter made this map of Maryland a few years ago. We brought it back for needed positivity. Now on her pick of tanks, and this cool Maryland T for men or women.

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Other Links:

Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones

Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported

Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.

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