Tornado Watch Until 10 PM Thursday September 3

Thursday September 3 2020

Follow up to my prior report, a Tornado Watch has been issued for our region through this evening. If you have seen the sun today, that has helped to destabilize the air. There is significant wind sheer aloft, which is a change in direction with height. This helps storms rotate and possibly develop funnels.

In addition, there will be the potential for other severe parameters in numerous storms. This includes: Flash Flooding for rain potential of 2 inches, damaging winds over 60 mph, large hail over 1 inch diameter, and dangerous lightning.

If you have not seen it yet: I have live radar and lightning on interactive maps. They are in the Maryland Weather Page. You can see that tab at the top or below the sliders.

Tornado Watch

This includes southern Pennsylvania, most of central Maryland, northern Virginia, and all of Delmarva.

Alert Reminder:

• Watch: Means it ‘might; happen.
• Warning: It is happening NOW! Short range timing and track for towns will be issued.

Safe Place: Do you know yours?

If you have a tornado warning, the best places to go are:

• Basement
• Interior Room with no windows
• Bathroom/In The Tub if there is actually damage occurring.
• Grab a pillow or blanket to cover your head just in case there is debris
• If driving and spot on, head away if you can or pull over. DO NOT park under an overpass. Winds are actually faster there.

Severe Storm Products

Tornado Parameter

This is on a scale of 0 to 10. This is similar to the the Tor-Con you may see on The Weather Channel, but this is an actually measurement. There are multiple spots with 4 or higher. That is not a promise, but concern enough for multiple twisters and touchdowns across southern PA, Potomac River Valley, and Delmarva.

K-Index

This measurement of 26 or higher means moderate convective activity (thunderstorms). Reach near or above 40 is high risk

Severe Storm Risk (from this morning)

Radar Simulations 

Reminder these model projections are NOT perfect. They can bet off for timing and location at times. But they can be a guide for activity and tracking.  Recently we have had much more storm activity than shown on these simulations.

NAM 3 Km —> slider

This is most aggressive, but has been the more accurate model in the past week.

This shows multiple lines of storms this afternoon and evening, and should be considered as a guide, not perfect.

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