Thursday September 3 2020

We are all set up for numerous storms with the potential to turn severe this afternoon and evening. The criteria for a storm to be severe includes: Winds over 60 mph, hail over 1 inch diameter, flash flooding, and isolated tornadoes. Not all storms will reach this level, but all will have the potential for dangerous cloud to ground lighting.

As of 3 PM, There has NOT been any advisory issued (yet). A new discussion from the Storm Prediction Center mentioned that a Tornado Watch is needed this afternoon. They issued a 95% chance as winds increase.  I will follow up as soon as it is official.

Storm Prediciton Center Tornado Watch Discussion


For now, I just wanted to give you the tools to plan on your own.

Here you will see new radar simulations from the NAM 3 KM and HRRR Models to compare. Also the GFS Model interactive maps.

Live Radar and Lightning is on the Maryland Weather and local pages shown below.




Tornado Watch Thursday September

Afternoon Set Up

Satellite Loop

A distinct line of clouds along the front is the trigger. But sun ahead of it has fueled the humid air. We can see clouds popping up in the region across central Maryland and eastern Virginia.



Temperatures And Winds

I have often pointed out that a wind from the southeast across the Bay will enhance any storm risk in metro areas.  That Bay Breeze is what we have that today, while the regional flow is from the southwest. This is one example of the the wind sheer expected today. The winds changing aloft are what will enhance storm rotation and potential tornadoes.

September maryland weather temperature wind Thursday 3 PM

Severe Storm Risk (from this morning)

New Severe Thunderstorm Risk Thursday September 3

Radar Snapshot

This activity as of 3 PM is already ahead of the model simulations below. Please keep that in mind to note the timing of the potential storms in your area.

September 3 weather radar Thursday 3 PM

Radar Simulations 

Reminder: The radar above has proven to be more active and ahead of schedule/location by about 1 to 2 hours compared to the models below.


NAM 3 Km —> slider

This is most aggressive, but has been the more accurate model in the past week.

This shows multiple lines of storms this afternoon and evening, and should be considered as a guide, not perfect.

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HRRR Model —> slider
This model had less activity, but still shows a few potent storms peaked around 8 PM in metro Baltimore.
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Compare To The GFS Model Simulation 

Note there are differences in the timing and location of possible storm clusters.  This is normal and why we study models to determine which is more reliable or how to blend them all for the best forecast

NEW: Temperatures AND Thunderstorm Slider

Try this:

  • Use the Orange Button to slide the timeline on your own. Or hit the Play Button at the lower left.
  • You can also pinch to zoom or move the map.

You will notice more storms possible on Thursday.

NEW: Interactive Rain and Wind Slider

Try this:

  • Use the Orange Button to slide the timeline on your own. Or hit the Play Button at the lower left.
  • You can also pinch to zoom or move the map.


Get Your Forecast Timeline
This is still a work in progress, but please check out these interactive pages:

Maryland Radar and Weather 

Maryland Weather Page

Get Your Local Maps And Forecast

I wanted to keep it simple. Just the basics for a quick view at any time.

Maryland Weather Just In Weather

14 Local Maryland Pages (and York PA)

We have made a page for Maryland Weather which gives you the current conditions for 14 present area locations. Many of these match up with the spots on our route.  Please use this list below are reference. I will include them daily with my articles on the kids.

Local Hourly Forecasts and Local Radar
Central Maryland
Southern Maryland




Climate Data And Weather Observations

September 3 moon phase Thursday


📋Observations yesterday

🌡 Climate data today

🗺 Weather Map

☀️ Sunrise and sunset times

🌙 Moon phase



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Also See:

July 2020 The hottest on record. Will it hint at snow this winter?


Record Hottest Month in Baltimore July 2020


Comet NEOWISE Viewing All July (photos/video)

Comet NEOWISE Bob Gelety


Maryland Strong Love ❤️ 

My ‘bonus’ daughter made this map of Maryland a few years ago. We brought it back for needed positivity. Now on her pick of tanks, and this cool Maryland T for men or women.

Click here or on the image to see more

This is all LOCAL: Made by Maryland Print House; Proceeds support my Maryland Trek 7 this August for Just In Power Kids.MarylandStrongLoveJaiden


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2020 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Names and Naming History

Tropical Storm Hurricane History


Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days

13_Tropical Storm Formation Sep11_20


Other  Links:

Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones


Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported

Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.


Also See:

Double Solar Halo

Double solar halo June 8


Just In Power Kids:

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