Tornado Watch May Be Issued Thursday New Radar Simulations

Thursday September 3 2020

We are all set up for numerous storms with the potential to turn severe this afternoon and evening. The criteria for a storm to be severe includes: Winds over 60 mph, hail over 1 inch diameter, flash flooding, and isolated tornadoes. Not all storms will reach this level, but all will have the potential for dangerous cloud to ground lighting.

As of 3 PM, There has NOT been any advisory issued (yet). A new discussion from the Storm Prediction Center mentioned that a Tornado Watch is needed this afternoon. They issued a 95% chance as winds increase.  I will follow up as soon as it is official.

For now, I just wanted to give you the tools to plan on your own.

Here you will see new radar simulations from the NAM 3 KM and HRRR Models to compare. Also the GFS Model interactive maps.

Live Radar and Lightning is on the Maryland Weather and local pages shown below.

TORADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM

SEE THE FULL REPORT HERE

Afternoon Set Up

Satellite Loop

A distinct line of clouds along the front is the trigger. But sun ahead of it has fueled the humid air. We can see clouds popping up in the region across central Maryland and eastern Virginia.

Temperatures And Winds

I have often pointed out that a wind from the southeast across the Bay will enhance any storm risk in metro areas.  That Bay Breeze is what we have that today, while the regional flow is from the southwest. This is one example of the the wind sheer expected today. The winds changing aloft are what will enhance storm rotation and potential tornadoes.

Severe Storm Risk (from this morning)

Radar Snapshot

This activity as of 3 PM is already ahead of the model simulations below. Please keep that in mind to note the timing of the potential storms in your area.

Radar Simulations 

Reminder: The radar above has proven to be more active and ahead of schedule/location by about 1 to 2 hours compared to the models below.

NAM 3 Km —> slider

This is most aggressive, but has been the more accurate model in the past week.

This shows multiple lines of storms this afternoon and evening, and should be considered as a guide, not perfect.

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