Hurricane Laura Forecast Severe Storm Risk And Rain Locally Saturday

Thursday August 27 2020

Hurricane Laura has been on land for almost 10 hours and has been downgraded to from Category 4 to 1. It is barely a hurricane with top winds of 75 mph, but there is a lot of energy left over even though it is away from the water.   So we must shift our focus to the forecast for our region in the Mid Atlantic Saturday.

The forecast track turns the core low through Virginia as it interacts with a cold front to the north.  How close it gets will determine how much rain and wind, and severe storm risk we may experience.  But the outlook does place the risk for a large populated area on Saturday.

Rain forecast maps are below.

Severe Storm Outlook

The risk for Flash Flooding, Damaging Winds, and Isolated Tornadoes.

 

Tropical Storm Laura

Let’s look at the conditions from 11 AM Thursday, then get back to the forecast:

Radar Loop

The rain is still wrapped tightly around the core in northern Louisiana, and rain extends into Arkansas. This will spread out farther as the storm gets weaker.

Satellite Loop

The cloud field will continue to expand and stretch out as this interacts the cold front and weakens.

Hurricane force winds reach 30 miles from the center. Tropical Storm force winds reach 105 miles away.

 

Satellite And Stats From The National Hurricane Center

 

 

Live Interactive Wind

 

 

Forecast Track: National Hurricane Center

The forecast takes this down to a Tropical Storm this afternoon. Then it will continue to weaken to a Tropical Depression on Friday. The remnant Low is likely to track through Virginia. But the ‘cone’ spreads out and how close it gets will determine the impact on us Saturday.

 

GFS Forecast Animation

This shows the expanded rain area as this interacts with a cold front. The remnant Low will pass off of the coast by Sunday, and may regain post tropical storm intensity.

• Saturday: Moderate rain at times, but a period of possible severe storms in the afternoon.
• Sunday will be clearing and cooler/less humid.

 

Snapshots: Saturday Afternoon

 

NAM 3 Km:

The higher resolution model shows the Low farther north in central Virginia, brining heavy rain bands and likely severe storms to metro Washington.

European ECMWF Model

This plot takes the remnant Low farther south. That would result in less rain and severe risk for our region, but bring it to the Carolinas.

 

Rain Forecasts

The GFS Model appears to the the mainstay here. This brings a swatch of 1 to 3 inches of rain to our region.

 

The European Model has the storm south and brings us less rain. This model has actually not performed as well lately, so it will be a true test project here.

 

Hurricane Laura Resource Page Click Here For: More Live Tools To Track The Storm Radar, satellite, National Hurricane Center updates, and this elaborate Coastal Inundation Page for anything you may want to see.

 

Tropical Related Posts

2020 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Names and Naming History

 

Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days

 

Maryland Weather 

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