May 18 Tropical Storm Arthur Update And Cooler Maryland Weather This Week

Monday May 18 2020

Tropical Storm Arthur is holding with 45 mph winds this morning. The storm has been sending rain to eater North Carolina and the center of the storm should pass the Outer Banks before noon. The closest pass to Maryland will be later today at it crosses out to the ocean, but may send some rain to Ocean City. The winds will be persistent and keep temperatures cool most of this week.

The good news is that less rain is expected this week. There is another storm system to our west that was expected to stall overhead. It looks like it will take all week to reach us instead. But cooler winds should keep us in the 60s each day, then rain on Friday. Next weekend we should return to the 70s.

Tropical Storm Arthur Morning Update

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 76.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

This means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.


Tropical Storm Arthur IR Satellite Loop


Afternoon Forecast
The closest Arthur should get to Ocean City, MD will be between 4 and 8 PM. Some rain showers, and strong easterly winds will keep temps on 
Delmarva in the 50s. Waves should be over 10 Ft on the local beaches.


Afternoon Temperatures

Ocean Wave Model Timeline

A persistent easterly flow in the 20 to 25 knot range should last much of the week. This is what will keep temperatures cooler the average/normal.

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TS Arthur Forecast Models
The GFS Ensemble still tries to loop this offshore, but staying offshore.

Global and Hurricane Models
Here we see a definitive curve, but not looping back.

National Hurricane Center Forecast Maps




Local Forecast
Maryland and the Mid Atlantic are in a squeeze play. Arthur is passing off the coast, and the Mid West complex will take all week to reach us. Since
This is not expected to stall over our region mid week, less rain is expected. But it should eventually reach us by Friday with rain.
See the Weather Collection Lab
Observations, Climate Data, sunrise/sunset, and moon phase

Forecast Animation



Temperature Forecast 
Tuesday
 

Temperature Outlook

Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days

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