May 14 Weather Warming Then Some Showers And Sub Tropical Storm Formation

Thursday May 14 2020

We have definitely turned the corner. Yesterday morning Baltimore tied a record low of 36ºF. This morning we started off a little warmer and now we continue that warming into the next few afternoons.  Tomorrow will peak in the 80s.

Some rain showers ay develop in the afternoons, but they will be widely scattered (most of us stay dry).  Saturday may bring the bigger risk of showers and a little cool down.

Next week is looking cooler and wet. A likely developing subtropical storm off the coast will not hit us, but indirectly shift the winds and help another storm form in its wake.

National Hurricane Center Outlook: ‘sub’ tropical storm formation

This is likely to develop over the weekend then move well off the coast. But a sub tropical storm is less organized than a tropical storm. This means it can form is slightly cooler waters and spread stronger winds and waves farther away from the center.

More on this forecast and impact on us below.

 

Quick Cast:

• Today: Closer to 70ºF; isolated showers.
• Friday: Mid 80s; isolated afternoon showers. T’storms north at night.
• Saturday: Mid 70s; a few showers.
• Sunday: Near 70ºF.
• Next Week: Watching a subtropical storm off the coast but a separate rain event locally.

 

Morning Temperatures 

 

Thursday Afternoon

Normal High at BWI is 73ºF

 

Chance For Showers 30%:

More likely across metro Washington and between Baltimore/Annapolis after 4 PM

 

Friday Weather

Morning Low

 

Afternoon High

 

Chance For Rain?

Mid Afternoon: Isolated = Less than 20% chance

 

Friday Night

Thunderstorms will be forming in central PA and dropping south to near the Maryland line.

 

Saturday Morning

The remains of that line of northern storms will pass through. Then more showers in the afternoon.

 

Switching To The Tropics

The European Model has an 80% chance for a tropical system to form over the weekend. This like likely to be a subtropical storm (a little weaker and larger in size) and would be named Arthur.

 

Saturday May 16

Here is the plot showing the forming storm over the Bahamas. The animated maps below show how it moves well offshore, but will still impact our local Maryland weather and throughout the Mid Atlantic.

 

Subtropical Storm Track

The loop starts on Saturday and you can follow the Low well East. However, there will be an increase of winds from the east that will feed into a local storm developing on the coast Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

Ocean Waves and Winds

Notice the highest waves over 20 Ft in the purple shade pass well offshore. However, the impact will be thrown back to the coast Tuesday and Wednesday. That red shade shows waves over 15 ft. The strong winds will feed into an upper level cut off Low forming over our region then.

 

Temperature Outlook 

The not result will bring us cooler temps again next week, along with rain. So enjoy the warm up on the way. Friday will be our warmest day. Sunday should be our most dry over the weekend.

 

 

 

 

Water Spout OR Scud Cloud on videos and photos near Middle River Maryland