Tuesday March 3 2020
Updated at 6:30 PM
A strong cold front is holding energy past sunset to produce some circulating storm cells as they enter our area. The forward speed is 60 mph, so the winds at the surface can be damaging. The worst is passing northern WV and VA into Central Maryland this evening. There will be a large area with a downpour and some lightning, but the risk for hail is small.
At first glance, this complex looks more impressive than the short range modeling, but I included two model simulations below anyway… at least to compare the timing.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
At 6:15 this was near Berryville and Charlestown. It is moving to the Northeast at 60 mph. That speed itself can carry the momentum for damaging winds.
At 6:35 PM the worst was in Frederick Co between Middletown and Ballenger Creek and New Market.
This warning runs from 6:20 PM to 6:45 PM (so it may be expired and a new one issued east when you read this)
Northwestern Loudoun County in northern Virginia…
Eastern Frederick County in northwestern Virginia…
Central Clarke County in northwestern Virginia…
Southern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia…
Wider View Radar
This storm structure covers a brand area. But the worst will hit southern Frederick County, northwestern Montgomery County, and western Howard into Carroll Counties. Mount Air to Westminster should get this by 7 PM. The north side of this line will bring heavy rain into York Couty PA at the same time.
Then the worst part will likely track on the north side of Baltimore between 7:30 and 9 PM. But metro areas should get in on some brief heavy rain and gusty winds.
Radar Loop
Short Range Model Simulations
These appear to be less intense than this shows on Doppler Radar, so please consider just the timing for these
NAM 3 Km—> slider
HRRR —> slider
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WEATHER WIFE COLLECTION
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Part 1: More Snow This Winter Supported By Stats
Part 2: Solar Minimum- Low Sunspots May Mean High Snow Totals This Winter
Part 3: Tropical Systems In East Asia and Atlantic Basin Hint At Winter Storm Tracks
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