January 8 2020
This was the first real widespread snow event for our region this winter. I would like to ask you to read the brief summary and then grade my report. The snow totals listed below are from NWS spotters. There may be some gaps and also slightly different amounts by your place. Please use this as a general idea of what actually fell.
Baltimore’s BWI recorded 1.5″ of snow bringing the seasonal total to 1.8″ or 40% of average to date. a short car ride to the norther suburbs and the totals jumped into the 4 to 6 inch range!
Forecast Grading Factors
Please consider these three main parts of a forecast when grading me:
- How much lead time to prepare for the event?
- Was the timing of the event correct?
- How much snow fell compared to what was forecasted?
Analysis
To start off, I need to go back to last week when the models did not support this snow. In fact on Friday January 3 this was projected to be a Low passing Pittsburgh and bringing us more rain. I publicly questioned this as I have been highlighting the error in mid range models since last Autumn.
I would never brag about good forecast because we all know how quietly one can go wrong. But from my TV days, all stations do something called POPs, or Proof of Performance spots to remind anyone of their coverage. My grade is not perfect, but this plays a role to elevate it.
Lead Time = 4 Days
Calling Out The Model Error Early
This first image was shared on Facebook and Twitter on Friday January 3
If you want some hope for snow soon… This is the 105 HR ECMWF plot for next Tuesday. I’ve noticed a model error sine Autumn w/systems verifying farther east and sooner.
This model originally had snow for Sun and it’s gone now. Perhaps we get this to bump as well #FITF pic.twitter.com/b03XpMz2fv— Justin Berk (@JustinWeather) January 3, 2020
The follow up images show the shift in the European ECMWF Model that caught up with my thinking and then how it verified.
—> slider
As I reported in my Winter Outlook, I have noticed an error in the mid range modeling. In that report I added that a few winter events would show up on models and end up missing us. But others would end up being a surprise, like this, if not addressed early enough.
- I suspected that this event would verify south and east to bring us a chance for snow.
- It is possible to get snow within a warm pattern!
My Final Call For Snowfall
While calling the event itself, and the timing that worked out well, I underplayed how much would stick. After a day in the 50s and the morning in the 40s, I saw more melting than stickage. I did update my forecast before the event, but my web site was locked up (again) Tuesday Morning and I had to resort to only social media to get the word out.
I figured the most stickage would be after 3 PM, and there would be some heavier bursts. The final push after 6 PM nearly doubled snowfall for many local areas.
I apologize to the outer areas that I cropped out. I will work to include more of PA, VA, and western Maryland next time.
- Many areas in blue ended up with more than forecast. Instead of 1 to 3 inches, it verified to 6 inches.
- The pink areas were either on target or slightly above my call
- The yellow areas had a little more pavement, but overall pretty close to my call.
What Actually Fell
Since I was under the verified amounts, I had to take my grade down a notch. But given the circumstance and beating the modeling on the tracking, I give myself:
Grade = A-(minus). I rarely give myself an A. I’ll take it this time. I posted above what show be a B+ because I beat the modeling four day ahead of time.
-
Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist
-
Twitter: @JustinWeather
Regional Snowfall Map
Local area maps are below
What do you think?
Do I get an A-? Or should it be in the B range. There will always be some that go to the Cs or fail me regardless. Also a few overly generous As in the crowd. But I want your honest opinion. That’s why I do this. To gain and maintain your trust.
Below are area maps. The spotter reports from the NWS Sterling VA region is listed below. Please go back to the post you saw this report and left me know how you would grade me.
Snow Spotter Report Maps
Central Maryland Snow
Southern PA Snow
York County got up to double my call with central parts of the county up to 6 inches between York and Shresbury
New Improved FITF Soft Fuzzy Beanies Just Arrived
Click To Get Yours Now
Western Maryland Snowfall
Metro Area Snow Between Washington and Baltimore
Get Forecasts By Email
Just in case you don’t get all posts on your social media feed, stay up to date with the latest info…
Click here to sign up for email alerts…. Be the first to hear any new weather
Full Spotter Snow Reports (From NWS Sterling VA)
The list of all of those locations is below.
Full Snow Spotter List from NWS
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************
LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
...District of Columbia...
National Zoo 1 NE 0.9 830 PM 1/07 Public
National Zoo 1 WSW 0.6 522 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
MARYLAND
...Allegany County...
Ridgeley 1 NW 4.5 327 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Cresaptown SSW 4.2 216 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Frostburg 2 ENE 4.0 453 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Cumberland 1 SSE 3.4 440 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Anne Arundel County...
Crofton 1 SSE 2.2 655 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
Crofton 2 NNE 2.0 645 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
Odenton 1 WNW 2.0 748 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Smith Island 5460 E 1.9 630 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Riveria Beach 3 WNW 1.8 752 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Bwi Airport 1.5 700 PM 1/07 Airport
Odenton 1 S 1.2 749 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Annapolis 1 NNW 0.6 700 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Churchton ENE 0.3 645 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Baltimore County...
Norrisville 3 W 5.0 700 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Bentley Springs 1 E 5.0 650 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Parkton SSW 5.0 750 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Reisterstown 1 SW 4.8 710 AM 1/08 Trained Spotter
Parkton 1 W 4.4 1010 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Hereford 3 WNW 3.2 710 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Long Green 2 NW 3.0 715 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Reisterstown 1 NW 2.6 700 PM 1/07 CoCoRaHS
Glyndon 1 WSW 2.6 749 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Glyndon 1 SW 2.5 622 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Catonsville 1 SSE 1.5 700 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Perry Hall 1 NNE 1.4 726 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Fullerton 1 N 1.3 800 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Baltimore City...
Pimlico SE 2.3 745 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Pikesville 2 SE 1.7 810 PM 1/07 CoCoRaHS
Arlington 1 NNW 1.2 730 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Calvert County...
Dunkirk 3 NNE 0.5 800 AM 1/08 CoCoRaHS
North Beach 2 WNW 0.1 700 AM 1/08 CoCoRaHS
...Carroll County...
Manchester 1 SSW 5.5 800 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Millers 2 NW 5.2 720 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Millers 3 ENE 5.0 730 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Manchester 2 NW 5.0 659 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Westminster 2 SE 4.5 645 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Westminster 2 NE 4.3 602 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Gamber 1 WNW 4.1 1245 AM 1/08 CoCoRaHS
Westminster 3 S 3.8 854 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Oakland 1 W 2.4 700 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Charles County...
Waldorf 2 W 0.5 503 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Frederick County...
Sabillasville 1 NNW 4.3 635 PM 1/07 CoCoRaHS
Pleasant Walk 1 NNE 2.8 607 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Sabillasville 2 SSE 2.5 400 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Thurmont 3 N 2.5 640 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
Bloomfield 2 WSW 2.0 500 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
New Market 2 NW 1.8 630 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Ballenger Creek 1 W 1.0 539 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Harford County...
Forest Hill 3 SW 2.4 750 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Howard County...
Glenelg 2 N 3.1 630 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Simpsonville E 2.8 830 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Ilchester 2 WSW 2.6 730 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Elkridge 2 W 2.3 640 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Columbia 2 N 2.1 700 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Columbia 2.0 700 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
Columbia 2 NE 2.0 700 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Simpsonville 1 W 2.0 900 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Savage 1 N 1.8 830 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Simpsonville 2 NNW 1.8 1054 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Columbia 3 ENE 1.8 1035 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
White Oak 1 W 1.6 700 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Laurel 2 N 1.5 630 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Elkridge 1.4 648 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
...Montgomery County...
Damascus 3 SSW 3.1 604 PM 1/07 Co-Op Observer
Leesburg 4 NE 2.3 515 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Damascus 1 SE 2.3 720 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Clarksburg 3 E 2.1 539 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Olney 1 E 2.0 627 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Fairland 1 W 1.8 615 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Poolesville 1.8 530 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Fairland 1 NNE 1.8 655 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Germantown 2 WSW 1.6 600 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Montgomery Village 1 1.5 610 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Norbeck 1 ESE 1.4 615 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Aspen Hill 1 SW 1.3 650 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Gaithersburg 1 SW 1.2 654 PM 1/07 Public
Bethesda 1 NNW 1.0 700 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Chevy Chase 1 W 1.0 615 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Olney 1 SE 0.4 530 PM 1/07 CoCoRaHS
...Prince Georges County...
Capitol Heights 1.9 630 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
University Park 1 E 0.4 400 PM 1/07 NWS Office
...Washington County...
Pecktonville 3 NNW 4.5 749 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
Hancock 4.5 715 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
Boonsboro 3 NNE 3.3 530 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Hagerstown 4 NNW 3.3 530 PM 1/07 CoCoRaHS
VIRGINIA
...Albemarle County...
Carrsbrook 3 WNW 3.5 523 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Earlysville 3 NW 3.5 300 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Hollymead 2 W 3.0 1252 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Hollymead 1 ENE 3.0 126 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Charlottesville 1 S 2.6 1257 PM 1/07 Broadcast Media
...Arlington County...
Reagan National Apt T 652 PM 1/07 Airport
...Augusta County...
Weyers Cave 1 SSW 3.3 225 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Waynesboro 4 WNW 3.2 739 PM 1/07 Broadcast Media
Fishersville 1 NE 3.2 300 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Waynesboro 3.0 739 PM 1/07 Broadcast Media
Fishersville 3 WSW 2.7 415 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...City of Alexandria...
Alexandria 1 W 0.5 500 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...City of Fredericksburg...
Dunavant 1 S 2.5 600 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...City of Harrisonburg...
Harrisonburg 4.0 739 PM 1/07 Broadcast Media
...City of Manassas...
Manassas Park 1 SW 2.4 830 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Independent Hill 2 E 2.0 600 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Manassas 1.9 439 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
...City of Staunton...
Staunton 3.0 739 PM 1/07 Broadcast Media
...Clarke County...
Berryville 1 NNW 3.8 355 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Boyce 3 NNW 3.5 618 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Culpeper County...
Reva SSE 4.2 230 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Cardova 2 NW 4.1 320 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Culpeper ENE 2.8 457 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Culpeper 1 NW 2.5 210 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Culpeper 1 W 2.5 215 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Fairfax County...
Centreville W 2.3 535 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Herndon 1 NNE 2.2 630 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
Oakton 4 WSW 2.2 553 PM 1/07 CoCoRaHS
Chantilly 2 NNE 2.0 514 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Centreville NNE 2.0 742 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
West Springfield 2 W 1.5 655 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Oak Grove 2 ENE 1.5 350 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Centreville 2 S 1.5 622 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Halfway 2 WSW 1.5 623 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Herndon 2 ENE 1.4 600 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Vienna 1.4 746 PM 1/07 Co-Op Observer
Fairfax 1 N 1.3 655 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
Tysons Corner 1 N 1.2 654 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
Falls Church 1 W 1.1 630 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Dunn Loring 1 SSE 1.0 600 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Langley 1 SE 0.8 645 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Rose Hill ENE 0.5 445 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Fauquier County...
Bealeton 1 ESE 3.0 459 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Opal 1 NW 3.0 439 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Broken Hill 2 E 3.0 700 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
Broken Hill 1 SE 2.5 427 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
...Frederick County...
Stephens City 2 E 5.0 455 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Gainesboro 2 W 4.8 537 PM 1/07 CoCoRaHS
Cross Junction 1 WNW 4.0 424 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Winchester 2 S 4.0 507 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Winchester 4 ENE 3.5 217 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Nineveh 2 NNE 2.5 400 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Middletown 3 NW 1.5 102 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Greene County...
Amicus 1 NNW 2.0 110 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Highland County...
Hightown 3 NW 4.0 600 PM 1/07 Public
...Loudoun County...
Round Hill 1 WNW 3.6 542 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Hillsboro 3 NW 3.5 521 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Purcellville 1 SW 3.0 507 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Philomont 1 SE 2.7 530 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Ashburn 3 WSW 2.7 830 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
Purcellville 2 NNE 2.3 540 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Arcola 1 NNE 2.2 530 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Arcola 3 NNE 2.1 558 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
Dulles International 2.0 509 PM 1/07 Airport
Purcellville 1.5 557 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
...Madison County...
Madison 1 SW 3.0 450 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Nelson County...
Nellysford 4 ESE 3.0 253 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Orange County...
Thornhill 2.0 141 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Page County...
Panorama 2 WSW 5.0 824 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Stanley 4.3 739 PM 1/07 Broadcast Media
Honeyville 1 ESE 4.3 300 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Luray 4.0 739 PM 1/07 Broadcast Media
Stanley 1 WSW 4.0 600 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Prince William County...
Haymarket NNE 3.4 545 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Independent Hill 3 N 2.7 620 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Gainesville 1 NNW 2.5 535 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Dale City 1 W 2.1 545 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Dumfries 1 ENE 0.5 624 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Rockingham County...
Linville 4 ESE 5.5 324 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Timberville 5.0 739 PM 1/07 Broadcast Media
Sparkling Springs 3 4.6 308 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Massanutten 1 SE 4.5 230 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Criders 3 ENE 4.0 739 PM 1/07 Broadcast Media
Bridgewater 3 NE 4.0 739 PM 1/07 Broadcast Media
Harrisonburg 2 W 4.0 607 PM 1/07 Broadcast Media
Bridgewater 4.0 739 PM 1/07 Broadcast Media
...Shenandoah County...
Toms Brook 3 SSE 5.0 620 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Quicksburg SSW 4.9 215 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Edinburg 2 E 4.8 400 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Edinburg 4.5 739 PM 1/07 Broadcast Media
Wickliffe 1 SSE 4.5 349 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Strasburg 4.0 739 PM 1/07 Broadcast Media
Woodstock 4.0 739 PM 1/07 Broadcast Media
Dilbeck 1 SSW 4.0 603 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Spotsylvania County...
Chancellorsville 3 S 1.3 455 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Alsop 3 NW 1.0 500 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Stafford County...
Holly Corner 1 ENE 1.7 651 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
Glendie 2 SSE 1.0 400 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Ramoth W 0.8 500 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Aquia 1 NE 0.5 400 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Warren County...
Linden 3 W 5.5 700 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Linden 2 N 5.3 513 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Front Royal 1 ENE 4.5 450 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Front Royal 1 NNW 3.5 436 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Karo 1 WSW 3.5 315 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
WEST VIRGINIA
...Berkeley County...
Johnsontown 1 S 4.8 615 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Falling Waters 2 NW 4.4 447 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Martinsburg 2 E 4.0 821 PM 1/07 NWS Employee
Bunker Hill SE 4.0 434 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Falling Waters 1 NNW 3.8 754 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Inwood 1 NE 3.5 458 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Grant County...
Cabins 1 NNE 3.5 419 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Bayard 3.5 231 PM 1/07 Co-Op Observer
...Hampshire County...
Capon Bridge 3 WSW 5.0 400 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Levels 3 ESE 4.5 612 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Hardy County...
Wardensville 3 E 5.0 315 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
McNeill 2 W 4.5 739 PM 1/07 Broadcast Media
Rig NNW 3.8 900 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Jefferson County...
Charles Town 3 NE 4.0 700 PM 1/07 CoCoRaHS
Millville 1 ESE 3.5 605 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Mineral County...
Keyser 5.0 150 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Burlington E 4.5 330 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Reeses Mill 3 NW 4.5 159 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Mccoole 3 ESE 4.2 257 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Morgan County...
Omps 4 WNW 5.3 345 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Smith Crossroads 1 W 3.4 440 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
...Pendleton County...
Cherry Grove 6 WSW 5.0 404 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Seneca Rocks 4.0 405 PM 1/07 Public
Deer Run 2 WSW 3.5 148 PM 1/07 Trained Spotter
Franklin 3.5 739 PM 1/07 Broadcast Media
WEATHER WIFE COLLECTION
- Thanks to Shannon (weather wife) for hand picking items ‘she’ wants to wear
- The Yoga Pants have side leg pocket for your phone
- The Hoodie is extra soft and has the important ‘thumb holes’
Part 1: More Snow This Winter Supported By Stats
Part 2: Solar Minimum- Low Sunspots May Mean High Snow Totals This Winter
Part 3: Tropical Systems In East Asia and Atlantic Basin Hint At Winter Storm Tracks
Snowy Winters Following A Hot and Dry September
NOAA Winter Outlook Leaves Room For More Snow With Mild ‘Seasonal Average’ Temperatures
Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported
Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.
Atmospheric Memory Shaped The US East Coast
Atmospheric Memory Of Hurricanes Over Thousands Of Years Shaped The Coast
Was Your County Not Included?
Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones
Maryland Trek Cycle Jerseys From Hill Killer
All proceeds will go to the Maryland Trek 6 total and Just In Power Kids programs
Thank you to our Title Sponsor for Maryland Trek 6
Shining on with Smyth and their contribution, our team has raised over $95,000 for Just In Power Kids to provide free programs for kids in and post cancer treatment.
Just In Power Kids:
Proceeds go to our programs Providing FREE holistic care for kids in cancer treatment and up to 5 years post treatment and caregivers.
Shine On
Proceeds from all sales go to Just In Power Kids. Click the image to shop and show your support.
