Sunday December 15 2019

We get to enjoy a sunny and mild day today, but snow and ice are on the way tomorrow morning. This storm will be similar to last week as it will evolve as it passes overhead.  There is more agreement among the models with it starting as snow before sunlight then transition to ice and rain.

The inland areas are more likely to have an impact, while many metro and bayside roads will likely be wet. A few miles can really make the difference from chilly rain to icy even at noon. So it won’t be a bust if you don’t have, but we have to find where that line will be.

Sunday Morning Weather

First Flakes Across Main Models

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Before looking at the closer simulation for Monday, check out the temperatures.
Sunday Afternoon
Monday: The cold may hold with ice just west and north of the cities/I-95
Morning
Afternoon

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NAM  Km Model
Initial snow in the morning will fall even on places that are above freezing.
This model is pretty aggressive holding the cold air, and thus keeping inland areas icy.  This includes
  • Parts of western Montgomery and Howard Co
  • Northern Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore, Harford, and Cecil Co
  • Much of Southern Pennsylvania

Simulation —> slider

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Headline Notes

  • The first snow should arrive before sunrise.
  • The Chesapeake Bay water temp is still in the mid 40s. This is warmer than this time last year and will play a role in limiting impact along and east of I-95 and I-97.
  • Schools could be impacted due to timing and colder air farther west and north.  In Maryland some counties might make a decision based on weather that could be slick while it is wet where you are.
  • Southern PA school decisions are based on district not county. But this area is likely to have impact from snow stickage and then icing at least through morning. Stay tuned!
  • Where are the Advisories? NWS is likely to start posting the first county impacts during their shift this afternoon.
  • How much snow? At this point it looks like a coating to 2 inches. Places that get 1 to 2 inches will also be in the zone to keep ice around during the morning at least. This includes:
  •                                 Parts of western Montgomery and Howard Co
  •                                 Northern Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore, Harford, and Cecil Co
  •                                 Much of Southern Pennsylvania
  • I will work on more details maps for arrival, snow/ice total, and impact later today.
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Looking Ahead

 

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WEATHER WIFE COLLECTION

  • Thanks to Shannon (weather wife) for hand picking items ‘she’ wants to wear
  • The Yoga Pants have side leg pocket for your phone
  • The Hoodie is extra soft and has the important ‘thumb holes’

FITF Store: Weather Wife

 

 

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall Winter 2019-2020

 

 

   

 

Snowy Winters Following A Hot and Dry September

 

NOAA Winter Outlook Leaves Room For More Snow With Mild ‘Seasonal Average’ Temperatures

Other  Links:

See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.

Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported

Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.

 

 

Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones

 

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